When the asteroid apophis approaches the earth. Where will the Apophis asteroid hit? Duty horror story or

According to preliminary estimates, Apophis could collapse on a strip 50 kilometers wide running through Russia, Pacific Ocean, Central America and extending further into the Atlantic. At a conference in San Francisco (USA), a group of astronomers, former astronauts and engineers was formed, which intends to prepare proposals for the creation of a special service at the UN by 2009.

It will determine the degree of danger of asteroid collisions with the Earth and will make decisions about sending a mission to change the trajectory of a cosmic body or evacuate the population in large areas of the planet. It is expected that by 2009 the UN will present an expanded report on space threats. Its authors will be American, Russian and European experts. After this, the global community must reassess the classification of space threats.

Duty horror story or...

“Even if the likelihood of an asteroid hitting Earth is low, we should consider it if the asteroid could cause significant damage. This is our direct responsibility. It would simply be irresponsible for us not to do this,” says Dr. Dan Barry, a former NASA astronaut who was part of the team.

The threat of meteorite danger has not been ignored by the press before, especially in the last 8 decades. Reports that “November 28, 1925, on the day of the Venerable Martyr Stephen, the Earth will strike celestial axis", more than enough. After the threat of an apocalypse in the form of a global nuclear war receded into the background in the minds of the average person (I think unjustifiably), the asteroid danger and global warming have become the go-to horror stories of humanity.

At the same time, few people think that the Earth is bombarded every day by millions of cosmic bodies, and the probability of a collision with a sufficiently large object that can cause a serious catastrophe is estimated at 1 in 45 thousand, or less than two thousandths of a percent. To be captured by the Earth's gravitational field, an asteroid must literally leak through the eye of a needle - its trajectory must pass through a very narrow zone of near-Earth space, the width of which does not exceed a kilometer.

And yet, such catastrophes happen periodically, at least once every 100 million years. In the periods following meteorite impacts, up to 95% of the planet died out. biological species, the landscape and ecosystem completely changed. Obviously, the survival of humanity in such conditions is unrealistic, because the duration of post-catastrophic changes exceeds millennia.

The date of the Apocalypse is Friday the 13th

The next candidate for the role of “global killer” was asteroid 2004 mn4, also known as Apophis-99942. This heavenly body irregular shape measuring 150 by 300 meters and weighing more than a million tons, approaching the Earth at a speed of 75 thousand km/h. The estimated date of closest approach to our planet is April 13, 2036. Of course it will be Friday. According to preliminary estimates, the place where Apophis fell will be on a strip 50 kilometers wide, running through Russia, the Pacific Ocean, Central America and extending further into the Atlantic. The cities of Managua (Nicaragua), San Jose (Costa Rica) and Caracas (Venezuela) are located exactly on this strip, so they are in danger of a direct hit and complete destruction.

However, the other most likely crash site is a point in the ocean several thousand kilometers from the west coast of America. If Apophis falls into the ocean, a crater 2.7 kilometers deep and approximately 8 kilometers in diameter will form in this place, from which tsunami waves will run in all directions. As a result, say, the coast of Florida will be hit by 20-meter waves that will bombard the mainland for an hour. Fragmentation of a cosmic boulder rushing towards our planet is also not a panacea - the rain of large debris with an unpredictable trajectory of fall can cause a lot of trouble.

Egyptian demon

This asteroid is considered suspicious by many. Registered in astronomical catalogs in 2004, he, according to the tradition of naming celestial bodies after mythological characters, received the name of one of the most evil demons of the ancient Egyptian pantheon. And with the numbering, according to American numerologists, respected astronomers, to put it mildly, “messed up.” After all, three nines in a row is upside down well, you know what.

Over the next two years, NASA is going to allocate about $300 million to find ways to counter the meteorite threat. After all, so far only Hollywood offers them. If we leave the option with a dashing team consisting of Bruce Willis and a dozen ordinary American workers with a compact thermonuclear charge as obviously unrealistic, there is only one thing left: shooting up a celestial body with thermonuclear missiles in order to destroy it or “push” it from a dangerous orbit.

But to hit an asteroid with a rocket, you must at least know exactly the elements of its trajectory. At the same time, it is advisable to have an idea of ​​where exactly to aim, otherwise, having received a nuclear bat “in the wrong place,” the asteroid will not leave the course that gives at least some hope of avoiding a collision by other measures, but on the contrary, it will land exactly on the “target.” It would be nice to know physical characteristics objects threatening the Earth, at least in order to have an idea of ​​the type and power of the charge capable of destroying the object. Otherwise, no missile defense system will help here.

Operation Citadel 2036

NASA believes that the entire world community should lead the creation of “anti-asteroid defense”, and the coordinating role should be assigned to the UN. It remains to choose a method of protection, of which there are only two: destruction of a celestial body or removal from a dangerous orbit. For now, the US space agency is considering at the concept level the possibility of a manned expedition to the asteroid.

The astronaut will have to change the trajectory of an object that threatens the death of life on Earth and install a marker on it - a beacon, which will allow the orbit of a celestial body to be tracked with high accuracy. Scientists believe that this expedition will be significant both for science and for demonstrating the capabilities of humanity. Today we don't know enough about asteroids to develop the best strategy to counter them.

The European Space Agency, meanwhile, is trying to evaluate the stopping effect of earthly spacecraft. Scientists are planning a “Don Quixote” mission, within the framework of which they will launch 2 automatic spacecraft. One of them should crash into a space object that is safe for the Earth, and the second will film the collision and determine whether the trajectory of the celestial body has changed.

If it turns out that a collision with Apophis is inevitable, you can try to throw him off course - just enough so that he does not fall into the “eye of the needle”. According to calculations carried out by NASA, a simple “blank” weighing a ton, the so-called kinetic impactor, which should hit the asteroid at a speed of 8000 km/h, will do for this. By the way, a similar mission has already been carried out by the NASA Deep Impact space probe.

Russian scientists propose a different approach. The thermonuclear charges should be delivered not by kamikazes, but by real devices created on the basis of the Phobos-Grunt spacecraft, the development of which is currently being carried out by the Lavochkin NPO. They can be launched using Dnepr and Zenit launch vehicles; their peculiarity is the short preparation time for launch, since they originate from strategic ICBMs. Our scientists believe that up to two interceptors will be required to reliably destroy an asteroid or divert its orbit. According to their calculations, a nuclear charge of several tens of kilotons would be required against an asteroid with a diameter of up to 100 meters. Megaton class ammunition will be required against a celestial body up to a kilometer in size. The project has already received the working title “Citadel”. However, the listed measures, which are more of an emergency nature, are ways to combat asteroid danger are not exhausted.

Space tractors

With a more systematic approach to the problem, a different solution is possible, which promises considerable benefits in the long term. We are talking about the possible towing of dangerous asteroids to other orbits. Here, too, several approaches are possible. Firstly, this is the placement on a celestial body of an ion or plasma engine powered by an autonomous source - solar panels or a reactor.

However, several engines, running for several weeks, can change the speed of the asteroid by several centimeters per hour, which is enough to prevent a collision. Since any object has mass and, accordingly, attracts other objects, another option is also possible: a “gravity tractor” weighing a ton or more, using a solar-powered ion (or plasma) engine or hydrazine shunting engines, will hover at an altitude of a quarter kilometers above the surface of the asteroid.

The gravitational force of the spacecraft will gradually pull the asteroid away from its trajectory - in fact, the thrust of the engines (that is, several grams of force) will be partially transferred to the celestial body over the course of a month. If we expand the scope of the problem a little, interesting possibilities emerge.

It is known that many cosmic bodies are composed mainly of metals (mainly ultra-pure iron and nickel) or of rocks that geologists would call valuable highly enriched ores. Theoretically, such asteroids, being transferred to convenient orbits, could be “melted down” in “cosmic blast furnaces,” fortunately, there is enough free energy from the Sun in free space. True, now the price of space metal castings will be almost “platinum”, but in the future, with the development of space transport systems, the situation may change.

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Of course, all this is understandable, but where is the guarantee that the chosen operation will be done on time and that everything will work out, because no one is immune from mistakes. And this mistake could cost humanity its life. In addition, I read an article that clearly stated the fact that if an asteroid is knocked off course, it will return in the same orbit back to Earth after some time, and then a collision will be inevitable.
In short, we conclude that the same consideration awaits us as our progenitors.
P.S. We all die
With deepest condolences to humanity, Yana.

maybe a clash is inevitable, if people die, it will be only the evil ones...

There are many smart people in Russia, the USA, Japan and other countries that will definitely save us)Look at life with a positive attitude)

According to preliminary estimates, Apophis could collapse on a strip 50 kilometers wide, running through Russia, the Pacific Ocean, Central America and extending further into the Atlantic.
Does it mean that we are at risk? hmm...wonderful, but I thought that America is a magnet for all troubles, eh....

in fact, it’s a shame that all humanity is threatened with death, and our rulers divide oil and gas, start wars, etc. and so on.

I immediately remember the movie "Deep Impact"...(

I remember reading Nostradamus - he predicted the end of the world in 2029

Yes, it seems to me that everything will be normal, especially with such technical achievements

everything will be OK. that you are worried. There is still a lot of time until this moment. that they will come up with a thread. and there is no need to lose heart. we need to look at it positively.

It's time to go here to Mars

Nonsense. God placed the Earth on solid foundations; it will never shake. I will never destroy people again, God also said after the flood. But by “turning away” the asteroids from the Earth (as they tried to turn the rivers back, and by building artificial seas and thereby changing the climate), people CAN destroy themselves. And no one is obliged to stop them, because... the principle of free will is all-encompassing and will not be abolished at the whim of people. The most terrible beast in the world for people is man himself.

This is not nonsense, disaster is inevitable!

everything will be fine. And if someone doesn’t believe then do it or

guys don't listen to them.

Oh no! I hope we will be saved!

If we didn’t know any of this, life would be much better, at least we would think about pressing problems, I advise everyone not to think about it in their own way personal experience— I was so worried about December 21 that I gave myself a “panic attack”, which I still can’t get rid of

I want to live

people and believe in all this, even Apophis will fall. Ukraine will not care and I am sure that it will not fall because the operation will begin in 2020 to save the planet. I would be more afraid of what will happen in 2014

If an asteroid falls on America, it will not fall to the ground, believe me, America will be saved in any way, and it will also save other cities. Moreover, after 8 years, as NASA said, they have long since begun building huge spaceships, so if you believe them, we are flying to Mars

Which Mars will we fly to, who needs us, lice, who will think about us there? I also heard that the bumps (belly buttons) are building something for themselves, but..... One version is only real, if they can turn it away from the trajectory, otherwise we are all screwed and believe me, not only will no one save us, but they won’t even say anything so as not to cause panic.

guys! that you are worried about your life ahead. doomsday is complete bullshit. (:super:)

When will it happen

Friday, April 13, 2029. This day threatened to be fatal for the entire planet Earth. At 4:36 GMT, asteroid Apophis 99942, weighing 50 million tons and with a diameter of 320 m, will cross the orbit of the Moon and rush towards Earth at a speed of 45,000 km/h. A huge, pockmarked block will contain the energy of 65,000 Hiroshima bombs - more than enough to wipe out a small country from the face of the Earth or rock a tsunami a couple of hundred meters high.

The name of this asteroid speaks for itself - that was the name of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and destruction, but there is still a chance that it will not be able to fulfill its fatal destiny. Scientists are 99.7% sure that the rock will fly past the Earth at a distance of 30–33 thousand kilometers. By astronomical standards, this is something like a flea jump, no more than a flight from New York to Melbourne and back, and much smaller than the diameters of the orbits of many geostationary satellites communications. After dusk, the population of Europe, Africa and Western Asia will be able to observe a celestial object similar to a medium-sized star crossing the area of ​​​​the sky where the constellation Cancer is located for a couple of hours. Apophis will be the first asteroid in the entire history of mankind that we will be able to clearly see with the naked eye. And then he will disappear - he will simply melt into the black expanses of space.

Maybe it will pass. But scientists have calculated: if Apophis is exactly 30,404.5 km from our planet, it should fall into

... a gravitational “keyhole”. A strip of space approximately 1 km wide, a hole comparable in size to the diameter of the asteroid itself, is a trap where the force of gravity of the Earth can turn the flight of Apophis in a dangerous direction, so that our planet will literally be in the crosshairs at the time of the next visit of this asteroid, which will take place exactly 7 years later - April 13, 2036.

The results of radar and optical tracking of Apophis, when it once again flew past our planet, made it possible to calculate the probability of it falling into the “keyhole”. In numerical terms, this chance is 1:45,000! “It's not an easy task to actually assess the hazard when the probability of an event is very low,” says Michael de Kay of the Center for Information Sharing and Hazard Assessment at Carnegie Mellon University. “Some believe that since the danger is unlikely, then it is not worth thinking about, while others, bearing in mind the seriousness of a possible catastrophe, believe that even the most insignificant probability of such an event is unacceptable.”

Former astronaut Rusty Schweickart has a lot to say about objects flying in outer space, - once upon a time, having climbed out of his ship during the Apollo 9 flight in 1969, he himself was such an object. In 2001, Schweickart became one of the co-founders of the B612 Foundation and is now using it to put pressure on NASA, demanding that the agency do at least some action regarding Apophis, and as soon as possible. “If we miss this chance,” he says, “it will be criminal negligence.”

Let’s say that in 2029 the situation will not be the best. Then, if we don’t want an asteroid to crash into the Earth in 2036, we must deal with it on approach and try to move it tens of thousands of kilometers to the side. Let's forget about the great technical achievements that we see in Hollywood films - in fact, this task far exceeds the current capabilities of mankind. Take, for example, the ingenious method proposed in the famous “Armageddon”, released in 1998 - to drill a hole a quarter of a kilometer deep in an asteroid and detonate a nuclear charge right inside. So, technically, this is no easier to implement than time travel. In a real situation, when April 13, 2029 approaches, all we have to do is calculate the location of the meteorite fall and begin evacuating the population from the doomed region.

According to preliminary estimates, the place where Apophis fell falls on a strip 50 km wide, running through Russia, the Pacific Ocean, Central America and goes further into the Atlantic. The cities of Managua (Nicaragua), San Jose (Costa Rica) and Caracas (Venezuela) are located exactly on this strip, so they are in danger of a direct hit and complete destruction. However, the most likely place of impact is a point in the ocean several thousand kilometers from the west coast of America. If Apophis falls into the ocean, a crater 2.7 km deep and approximately 8 km in diameter will form in this place, from which tsunami waves will run in all directions. As a result, say, the coast of Florida will be hit by twenty-meter waves that will bombard the mainland for an hour.

However, it is too early to think about evacuation. After 2029, we will no longer have the opportunity to avoid a collision, but long before the fateful moment we can slightly knock Apophis off course - just enough so that it does not fall into the “keyhole”. According to calculations carried out by NASA, a simple “blank” weighing one ton, the so-called kinetic impactor, which should hit the asteroid at a speed of 8000 km/h, will do for this. A similar mission has already been carried out by NASA's Deep Impact space probe (by the way, its name is associated with another Hollywood blockbuster from 1998). In 2005, this device, by the will of its creators, crashed into the nucleus of the comet Tempel 1, and thus information was obtained about the structure of the surface of this cosmic body. Another solution is possible when spacecraft with an ion propulsion device, playing the role of a “gravitational tractor”, will hover over Apophis, and its - albeit insignificant - force of gravity will slightly shift the asteroid from its fateful course.

In 2005, Schweickart urged NASA management to plan a rescue mission to install a radio transmitter on Apophis. Data regularly received from this device would confirm the forecasts for the development of the situation. With a favorable forecast (if an asteroid flies past the “keyhole” in 2029), the inhabitants of the earth could breathe a sigh of relief. In the event of a disappointing forecast, we would have enough time to prepare and send into space an expedition capable of averting the danger that threatens it from the Earth. To complete such a project, according to Schweikart's estimates, it could take about 12 years, but it is advisable to complete all rescue work by 2026 - only then can we hope that the remaining three years will be enough to show positive results from the barely noticeable impact on cosmic scales from our rescue ship.

In 1998, the US Congress instructed NASA to search for, record and track all asteroids with a diameter of at least 1 km in near-Earth space. The resulting Space Security Report describes 75% of the 1,100 objects believed to exist. (During these searches, Apophis, which did not reach the required size of 750 m, caught the eye of the researchers simply by luck.) None of the giants included in the “report”, fortunately, pose a danger to the Earth. "But in the remaining couple of hundred that we haven't been able to detect yet, anyone could be on the way to our planet," says former astronaut Tom Jones, a NASA asteroid-hunting consultant. In light of the current situation, the aerospace agency plans to expand the search criterion to a diameter of 140 m, that is, to capture into its network celestial bodies half the size of Apophis, which can nevertheless cause significant damage to our planet. More than 4,000 such asteroids have already been identified, and according to preliminary estimates NASA, there must be at least 100,000 of them.

As the procedure for calculating the 323-day orbit of Apophis showed, predicting the paths along which asteroids move is a troublesome business. Our asteroid was discovered in June 2004 by astronomers at the Arizona National Observatory Kitt Peak. A lot of useful information was obtained by amateur astronomers, and six months later, repeated professional observations and more accurate sighting of the object led to such results that JPL sounded the alarm. JPL's holy of holies, the Sentry asteroid tracking system (a super-powerful computer that, based on astronomical observations, calculates the orbits of near-Earth asteroids) made predictions that looked more and more ominous day by day. Already on December 27, 2004, the estimated chances of a collision expected in 2029 reached 2.7% - such figures caused a stir in the narrow world of asteroid hunters. Apophis took an unprecedented 4th step on the Turin scale.

However, the panic quickly subsided. The results of those observations that had previously eluded the attention of researchers were entered into the computer, and the system announced a reassuring message: in 2029, Apophis will fly past the Earth, but will miss by the slightest. Everything would be fine, but there was one unpleasant little thing left - that very “keyhole”. The tiny size of this gravitational “trap” (only 600 m in diameter) is both a plus and a minus. On the one hand, it would not be so difficult to push Apophis away from such an insignificant goal. If you believe the calculations, then by changing the speed of the asteroid by only 16 cm per hour, that is, by 3.8 m per day, in three years we will shift its orbit by several kilometers. It seems like nonsense, but it’s quite enough to bypass the “keyhole”. Such influences are quite capable of the already described “gravitational tractor” or “kinetic blank”. On the other hand, when we are dealing with such a tiny target, it is impossible to accurately predict which way Apophis will deviate from the keyhole. Today, forecasts of what the orbit will be by 2029 have an accuracy scale (in space ballistics it is called the “error ellipse”) of approximately 3000 km. As new data accumulates, this ellipse should gradually become smaller. In order to say with any certainty that Apophis is flying past, it is necessary to reduce the “ellipse” to a size of about 1 km. Without the necessary information, a rescue expedition may divert the asteroid to the side, or may unintentionally drive it into the hole itself.

But is it really possible to achieve the required forecasting accuracy? This task involves not only installing a transceiver on the asteroid, but also mathematical model incomparably more complex than the one currently in use. The new orbit calculation algorithm should also include such seemingly insignificant factors as solar radiation, terms added to account for relativistic effects, and gravitational influence from other nearby asteroids. In the current model, all these amendments have not yet been taken into account.

And finally, when calculating this orbit, another surprise awaits us - the Yarkovsky effect. It's extra small but sustainable effective force– its manifestation is observed in cases where the asteroid emits more heat from one side than from the other. As the asteroid turns away from the Sun, it begins to radiate heat accumulated in the surface layers into the surrounding space. A weak, but still noticeable reactive force appears, acting in the opposite direction heat flow. For example, a twice as large asteroid called 6489 Golevka, under the influence of this force, has moved 16 km away from the calculated orbit over the past 15 years. No one knows how this effect will affect the trajectory of Apophis over the next 23 years. At the moment, we have no idea about the speed of its rotation, or the direction of the axis around which it could rotate. We don’t even know its outlines – but this information is absolutely necessary in order to calculate the Yarkovsky effect.

However, in 2013 NASA reported that earth threatening huge asteroid Apophis may collide with our planet in 2068. A scientific article was published, which was prepared by a group of researchers of cosmic phenomena, led by David Farnocchi. Scientists carry out their work at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, with the support of the University of Hawaii and the University of Pisa. In the process of scientific development, more than 20 so-called “keyholes” were identified, the influence of which on the asteroid Apophis could lead to a catastrophe, which scientists have postponed more than once.
Among these cosmic phenomena, there was one during which Apophis would not push away, but rather would be attracted to the Earth and, when he appeared on April 12, 2068, he might no longer miss it. Although the risk of a collision is not great, its probability is slightly higher than one in a million, scientists still have not ruled out this possibility.

Initial calculations showed that Apophis could collapse on Earth in 2029 or 2036, but they were subsequently not confirmed. However, passing by our planet, the space monster will change its orbit and return to it more than once.

Russian scientists have already managed to take the first steps towards saving the Earth. They proposed a new way to protect the planet from asteroids - to knock them off their trajectory with the help of attacks from other astroid. To translate this idea into reality, a special laboratory was created in Russia mathematical modeling ways and methods of protection against asteroid and comet danger. Russian and foreign scientists take part in the work of the laboratory. The project is financed through a grant won, the amount of which is 150 million rubles.

Project manager David Eismont suggested that it is necessary to use a gravitational maneuver to accelerate a small asteroid and use it to shoot down Apophis, changing its trajectory. With the help of a gravitational maneuver and the gravity of the planet, the speed of a cosmic body can be significantly increased. By the way, this method is used to send spacecraft to the longest possible distances in solar system without high fuel consumption.

Thus, certain calculations were made according to which, in order to ensure a gravitational maneuver of an asteroid-projectile with a mass of 1.4 thousand tons and a diameter of 15 meters near the Earth, a small engine and about 1.2 tons of fuel are needed.

Scientists intend to launch a beacon apparatus on a Soyuz rocket and land it on a dangerous asteroid. The project of this lighthouse is currently under development. We are talking about two spacecraft - “Kaissa” and “Kapkan” (the first is for reconnaissance, the second is strike, with nuclear warheads). Scientists identified asteroid 2011 UK10 as the projectile.
Large-scale developments in this industry are also underway in the United States. The American HAIV program is noteworthy, the essence of which is to create nuclear asteroid interceptors. This program is aimed at creating protective technologies to ensure the safety of the planet from the consequences of an asteroid collision. HAIV itself is a spacecraft designed to penetrate an asteroid and explode there. That is, either the complete destruction of the object will occur, or it will be possible to move it from the trajectory of movement.

Another very interesting project was developed by the American company SEI. The essence of the project is to send small robots to an asteroid. By burrowing into the surface of an asteroid and throwing rock into space, these robots must change its trajectory.

Another American company has put forward a proposal to launch an infrared telescope into space to search for and track potentially dangerous asteroids.

Among international developments, it is necessary to note the technology of painting celestial bodies, designed to protect the Earth from potential threats. The essence of the technology is to reduce the reflectivity of asteroids. To influence the movement of a space object, a special paint must be applied to its surface using a special space drone.

In addition, there are currently about 40 in various ways combating potentially dangerous celestial objects. In particular, we can name a high-power frontal strike, the detonation of a nuclear charge.

Some projects that are in development also deserve attention. So, for example, the European Union plans to allocate about four million euros for the implementation of the NEO-Shield project, which involves the construction of a shield from asteroids. However, such construction will be very expensive - its cost is estimated at approximately 300 million euros. By the way, due to lack of funds, another project was frozen - “Don Quixote” (its goal was to send the Hidalgo satellite to the asteroid

Asteroid 2004 MN4 was discovered by astronomers at the Kitt Peak Observatory (USA, Arizona) in 2004. July 19, 2005 received given name- Apophysis. Named after the ancient Egyptian god Apep - a mythical huge serpent who, living in the underworld, tries to destroy the Sun (Ra) during his night transition. There is a high probability that on April 13, 2036, an asteroid may collide with our planet.

According to scientists, in 2029 Apophis will pass at a distance of about 30 thousand kilometers from our planet. Influenced gravitational field On Earth, its flight path will change and, returning to 2036, it may fall onto the surface of the planet.

The date of the possible collision was calculated by an employee of the Petersburg state university Leonid Sokolov. This is April 13, 2036. Even if Apophis passes by, the likelihood of a collision in subsequent years will not only remain, but also increase. Crossing the Earth's orbit every seven years, asteroid 2004 MN4 inexorably reduces the distance to its surface.

It is not yet possible to calculate exactly where Apophis will end up if he is destined to fall to Earth. According to preliminary calculations, the probable fall zone starts from the Urals, passing along the Russian border with Kazakhstan and Mongolia, crosses the Pacific Ocean, Central America, the Atlantic Ocean and ends near the coast of Africa.

What will happen if an ominous asteroid actually hits Earth?

According to astronomers, the size of Apophis reaches up to 415 m in diameter, and its mass is about 50 million tons. Having crashed into the surface of the planet at a speed of at least 16 km/s, it will cause an explosion with a capacity of about five hundred megatons (500,000,000 tons in TNT equivalent). For comparison: dropped on Hiroshima atomic bomb had a capacity of about 20 kilotons (20,000t); power tested Soviet Union in 1961, on Novaya Zemlya, the thermonuclear “Tsar Bomba” (aka “Kuzka’s Mother”) amounted to about 60 megatons; The explosion of the Krakatoa volcano in 1883 released the equivalent of 200 megatons of energy (while fragments of the island scattered over a distance of 500 km).

In any case, the explosion of an asteroid will cause colossal destruction over an area of ​​​​thousands of square kilometers. Hundreds of cities could be subject to catastrophic destruction. It is possible that the number of victims will be in the hundreds of millions of people. The explosion will release huge amounts of dust into the atmosphere. And its fall into the ocean will lead to the formation of a crater 3 km deep and about 8 km in diameter. The consequences of the resulting tsunami will be terrible.

Currently, there are three centers on the planet, whose activities are aimed at identifying space objects that represent real threat for our planet. Two of them are located in the United States, and one is in Italy. Americans have 99% of all information. And they are in no hurry to share it. On the contrary, they are trying in every possible way to limit other countries’ access to the data they receive.

Thanks to their efforts, at the beginning of the 2000s, observational data on the geostationary orbit were closed to Russian scientists. In 2009, data on observations of fireballs entering the atmosphere were closed. In our country, we do not have a global system for tracking dangerous space objects. And this worries many scientists.

There are about 7 thousand objects in space that are approaching our planet, and more than a thousand of them pose a real danger. And these are only the objects that were discovered. In addition to asteroids, comets pose a great danger. Especially those that move towards the Earth from the direction of the Sun. It is difficult to detect them, and the speed of comets is incomparably greater than the speed of asteroids. Even if it is possible to timely detect a comet flying towards the planet, there will be very little time to take any measures.

Currently, there are no weapons on Earth that could be effectively used to repel the fall of space objects onto the planet. And to create it, it is necessary to unite the efforts of all humanity. The Apophis asteroid can be considered as an object on which it is possible to work out joint actions to eliminate the asteroid danger.

Each country makes its own efforts. In Russia, the Lavochkin NGO is dealing with the problem of preventing a possible collision. In the period from 2012 to 2014, it is planned to send a research apparatus to the asteroid to study it in detail. And this device is being developed by NPO Lavochkin. If the mission is successful, the tracking accuracy of Apophis could be significantly improved. This will have a positive effect on his calculations possible threat for our planet.

And yet, efforts to repel the threat from space must be combined. No country in the world will have a guarantee that, having achieved certain success in solving the problem, another country, having accurately calculated that a cosmic body should fall on its territory, will not deviate the trajectory of its movement. It will deflect not so that the object passes by the planet, but so that it falls into the territory of a potential enemy.

For the past eight years, scientists have been observing a celestial body that is rapidly moving towards the Earth. It was first discovered from the Kitt Peak Observatory (Arizona) by astronomers David Jay Tholen, Roy A Tucker and Fabrizio Bernardi. The asteroid was assigned the code "2004MN4". Soon, with the help of preliminary calculations, it was found that it has a radius of 320 meters, and on April 13, 2029 it will collide with the Earth and bring with it a deadly cataclysm. Therefore, a year after its discovery, in 2005, the meteorite was given the threatening name of the ancient god - Apophis.

According to astronomers’ calculations, the probability of its collision with our planet is 3 in 100. As is clear, this is a fairly small ratio. However, in the entire history of astronomy, there has not been one that would have such a possibility of colliding with the Earth as the asteroid Apophis. But opinions are divided, and some astronomers believe otherwise.

Like any asteroid, Apophis moves around the Sun. It takes 323 days to fly around the entire orbit. The speed is 37,000 km/h. Weight - 50 million tons. Radius - 320 m. The Apophis asteroid, photos of which have already been presented by NASA, has a surface dotted with the fall of small meteorites.

In the century computer technology the accuracy of astronomical calculations has been brought to almost perfection, and scientists have figured out everything, right down to the point where the asteroid Apophis will fall. 2012, however, brought many contradictions to these same forecasts. Some scientists claimed that it would collide with the Earth in 2029 in the west of North America, others - that in 2068 and on the territory of the Russian Federation.

But no matter how scientists argue, one thing is certain. If the asteroid Apophis falls to Earth, it will become a worldwide catastrophe. The death of civilization certain territory guaranteed. And even the end of all humanity is possible. The force of detonation in the event of a collision will be similar to the explosion of all nuclear weapons that are on our planet today.

Throughout human history, especially in the 20th and 21st centuries, the end of the world has been predicted many times. And each time the prophecies turned out to be unjustified, but only caused panic among the population. According to some people, the Apophis asteroid is another needless panic. Astronomers inclined towards statistics believe that this celestial body can in no way collide with the Earth, since quite recently (by cosmic standards), almost a century ago, our planet was subject to a powerful blow that unleashed its force on Siberia. In those days, severe cataclysms were observed: the so-called “nuclear winter”, radiation and some According to “statisticians”, such cataclysms cannot occur so often. And the next similar collision awaits the Earth no earlier than in ten centuries.

And, agreeing with this, in 2013, NASA astronomers refuted the initially announced probability of Apophis colliding with the Earth, reducing it to 1 in 250,000. The figure is much more joyful.

But no matter how scientists argue, and no matter how comforting calculations and theories are put forward, the human mind will always think and expect something terrible from a potential threat, and panic. Remember that you can sincerely believe in the near end of the world, but the probability was and remains negligible.