Global warming in winter. Global warming causes and consequences, what it threatens. Can the observed changes be caused by natural causes?

Global warming is the trend increase in average temperature on Earth over the past 100 years. It is calculated using data from weather stations around the world; in Europe, such stations have existed for about 150 years. But for the whole world, we have data for the last 100 years, and this calculation shows that the temperature is rising, and rising in a trend manner, that is, it is a significant trend, and not just fluctuations around some long-term average temperature value.

At the same time, it should be noted that this temperature does not rise smoothly, but grows in so-called “steps” and sometimes reaches a “plateau”. Let's say that in the last 30 years there has been a very noticeable increase in temperature, a particularly strong rise occurred in the 90s, and since 2000 this process has slowed down. This has happened before, that is, we can say that the temperature is rising in “steps.”

Ultimately, temperatures have risen 0.86 degrees since 1905, which is a significant change.

Causes of global warming

Today, the dominant theory in the world is that the main cause of global warming is greenhouse gas emissions. In this regard, there is an unprecedented consensus in the scientific community: 97% of publications on the topic of climate change supported the theory that global warming is associated with greenhouse gas emissions, primarily CO2, from industry. In principle, CO2 emissions are small compared to emissions from natural sources. Since land and ocean are suppliers carbon dioxide, but at the same time they absorb it: in the ocean this is done by plankton, and on land - by plants. If we sum up these flows, then the greenhouse gas flows from fuel combustion are very small compared to natural flows, they constitute approximately 4–5% of natural flows.

So the mystery is: Why can't this 4-5% of "extra" CO2 be absorbed by vegetation or the ocean? Moreover, under experimental conditions, a fertilization effect is observed due to the increased content of carbon dioxide: if you cover the plant with a cap and start pumping CO2 into it, the plant will begin to grow faster. An experiment was also carried out on a wheat field: CO2 was supplied to part of the field from a special hose, and in this place the wheat grew faster. But in natural conditions such a fertilization effect is not observed; instead, there is an accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, which for some reason is not absorbed by vegetation.

The most simple proof The fact that it is gas from industrial emissions that accumulates in the atmosphere is the following: if you look at which hemisphere the accumulation of CO2 occurs, it immediately becomes clear that it occurs in the Northern Hemisphere, which is much more industrialized. Of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, 35% remains forever in the atmosphere - this is the increase in CO2 that causes an additional greenhouse effect.

At the same time, it cannot be said that the greenhouse effect is solely due to CO2: there are a number of other greenhouse gases, the most common of which is water vapor. Warming up of the Earth due to greenhouse effect estimated at 33 degrees. If the greenhouse effect did not exist, then we would have the same temperature balance as on the Moon, that is average temperature it would have been −18 degrees, but now it’s +15, and this difference is 33 degrees. Of these 33 degrees, we can attribute 30 degrees to water vapor and only 3 degrees to all other greenhouse gases, including artificial substances, such as chlorofluorocarbons, which are contained in refrigeration units. Why do people talk about CO2 the most? The fact is that CO2 is a gas that is directly related to anthropogenic activities. In addition to it, there is, for example, methane, which is relevant for our country - a large amount of methane can appear in the permafrost zone, which can also make a significant contribution to global warming. But currently it is CO2 that is the focus of scientists' attention.

The danger of global warming

First of all, you need to calculate how much the Earth will eventually warm up. At the same time, we must understand that we are all adapted to existing climatic conditions. Of course, they vary from year to year, but in general a lot depends on the existing atmospheric circulation system. As an example: our country is characterized by great seasonality - snow accumulates in winter, followed by spring floods, and then summer comes. But in last years We are seeing a trend of snowpack not accumulating because too often there is a thaw in the winter and there is no peak flood. But at the same time, all our reservoirs are adapted to the conditions that existed previously, that is, in the spring they receive insufficient water, and for the second year in a row there was not enough water in the Volga basin. But you can adapt to these things.

On the other hand, there are calculations that the problem may be much more serious, because we live in a certain air circulation system - for our latitudes this is, for example, westerly transport from the Atlantic, and in addition, there is a Siberian anticyclone. But if the heating of the Earth continues, then the air circulation system itself may change, and some signs of this are already noticeable. In Europe, winters are already becoming unpredictable: it suddenly starts snowing for several days in a row, and airports simply cannot cope with the snowfall. This is primarily due to the weakening of the western transport. At the same time, it is worth taking into account many other factors, for example, the melting of ice in the Arctic - they become annual rather than perennial, as a result a heat pole is created, because water warmer than ice, and such things immediately affect air circulation - the weather changes quickly. And such a restructuring of the system can be very dangerous and will require a restructuring of the entire industry and beyond. In any case, great challenges will await us.

Methods to combat global warming

Two main methods are proposed to combat global warming: radical reductions in atmospheric emissions and geoengineering methods. Today it is completely unclear what is more feasible to do: reduce emissions or accelerate the development of bioengineering methods, although this moment There is not a single successful method of using them. At the same time, the path of radical emissions reduction has already proven to be unrealistic.

The Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997, was based on various scenarios. But at the moment we have already exceeded the most pessimistic of the proposed scenarios. First of all, this is due to accelerated development third world countries and especially China. If in the 1990s the economic development of the PRC followed the Kyoto Protocol scenario, then in the 2000s the pace economic development China have increased sharply. China needed additional energy resources, which they could only find in their own coal. And coal is the largest supplier of CO2 per unit of production, which is why we could not stay within the given scenarios. Now that the Kyoto Protocol has failed, we are at a loss: it turns out that we cannot agree among ourselves. At the moment, instead of the Kyoto Protocol, there is only the Copenhagen Accord, that is, voluntary obligations of countries to control emissions, but this document has not even been adopted at the official level, and even if these obligations are observed, this still will not fundamentally change the situation.

The second way is bioengineering methods. One of these methods is to inject CO2 into mines. Such installations are already being created, but none of them have worked yet. In 2009, another experiment was carried out - an attempt was made to increase the bioproductivity of the ocean so that phytoplankton absorbed “extra” carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. An area in the ocean with reduced productivity due to a deficiency of dissolved iron was found, where the experiment was carried out. However, it failed: after dissolved iron was added, rapid development of phytoplankton began; According to scientists' calculations, the plankton should have sunk to the bottom, but this did not happen; instead, it went along the food chain, and the effect was zero. There are also exotic methods, for example, increasing the reflectivity of the stratosphere using special aerosols.

Possible scenarios for the development of global warming

Calculations of temperature increases are ongoing until the end of this century. The closest threshold is exceeding 450 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere. At the moment, the CO2 concentration is about 400 parts per million (this figure was first recorded in February 2015). At 450 million we will have a temperature threshold exceeding 2 degrees. It is believed that until this moment we live in the familiar world, after which a change in the circulation system will begin. This is expected to happen in 2040, and by 2100 there could be an excess of 4 or 5 degrees, effectively changing the entire Earth's climate system. During the Ice Age, the average temperature was +11 degrees, today it is +15, that is, the difference is only 4 degrees. This means that if we “warm up” by 4 degrees, this could mean a restructuring of the atmospheric circulation system, a change in the entire biosphere of the Earth, which, naturally, will lead to unpredictable political and economic changes around the world.

By 0.86 degrees In the 21st century, according to forecasts, the temperature increase may reach 6.5 degrees - this is a pessimistic scenario. According to optimistic estimates, it will be 1-3 degrees. At first glance, an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere does not greatly affect human life and is not very noticeable to him, and this is true. Living in the middle zone, it is difficult to feel this. However, the closer to the poles, the more obvious the impact and harm of global warming.

Currently, the average temperature on Earth is about 15 degrees. During the Ice Age it was about 11 degrees. According to scientists, humanity will feel the global warming problem when the average atmospheric temperature exceeds 17 degrees Celsius.

Causes of global warming

Around the world, experts identify many reasons that cause global warming. In essence, they can be generalized to anthropogenic, that is, caused by man, and natural.

Greenhouse effect

The main reason that leads to an increase in the average temperature of the planet can be called industrialization. An increase in production intensity, the number of factories, cars, and the planet's population affects the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. These are methane, water vapor, nitrogen oxide, carbon dioxide and others. As a result of their accumulation, the density of the lower layers of the atmosphere increases. Greenhouse gases allow solar energy to pass through them, which heats the Earth, but the heat that the Earth itself gives off is retained by these gases and not released into space. This process is called the greenhouse effect. It was first discovered and described in the first half of the 19th century.

The greenhouse effect is considered the main cause of global warming, since greenhouse gases are released in one form or another by almost any production. Most emissions come from carbon dioxide, which is released as a result of the combustion of petroleum products, coal, natural gas. Vehicles emit exhaust fumes. Large amounts of emissions are released into the atmosphere from conventional waste incineration.

Another factor increasing the greenhouse effect is deforestation and forest fires. All this reduces the number of plants that produce oxygen, which reduces the density of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases are emitted not only by industrial enterprises, but also by agricultural ones. For example, cattle farms. Conventional barns are sources of another greenhouse gas - methane. This is due to the fact that ruminant cattle consume a huge amount of plants per day and, when digesting it, produce gases. This is called "ruminant flatulence." Methane accounts for less than 25% of greenhouse gases, however, than carbon dioxide.

One more anthropogenic factor The increase in the average temperature of the Earth is a large number of small particles of dust and soot. Being in the atmosphere, they absorb solar energy, heating the air and preventing the heating of the planet's surface. If they fall out, they transfer the accumulated temperature to the earth. For example, this effect has a negative impact on the snow of Antarctica. Warm particles of dust and soot when they fall heat the snow and cause it to melt.

Natural causes

Some scientists suggest that global warming is also influenced by factors to which humans have nothing to do. So, along with the greenhouse effect, solar activity is called the cause. However, this theory is subject to numerous criticisms. In particular, a number of experts argue that solar activity over the past 2000 years has been stable and therefore the reason for the change in average temperature lies in something else. In addition, even if solar activity did heat the Earth's atmosphere, this would affect all layers, not just the bottom.

Another natural cause is volcanic activity. As a result of eruptions, lava flows are released, which, in contact with water, contribute to the release of large amounts of water vapor. In addition, volcanic ash enters the atmosphere, particles of which can absorb solar energy and trap it in the air.

Consequences of global warming

The harm caused by global warming can already be traced. Over the past hundred years, the level of the world's oceans has risen by 20 centimeters due to melting arctic ice. Over the past 50 years, their number has decreased by 13%. Over the past year, there have been several large icebergs from the main ice mass. Also, due to global warming, heat waves in summer now cover 100 times more area than 40 years ago. In the 80s, extremely hot summers occurred on 0.1% of the Earth's surface - now it is 10%.

Dangers of global warming

If no measures are taken to combat global warming, the consequences will become much more noticeable in the foreseeable future. According to ecologists, if the average temperature of the Earth continues to rise and exceeds 17-18 degrees Celsius, this will lead to the melting of glaciers (according to some data, this is in the year 2100), as a result, the sea level will rise, which will lead to floods and other climate disasters. Thus, according to some forecasts, almost half of all land will fall into the flood zone. Changing water levels and ocean acidity will change the flora and reduce the number of animal species.

The most significant danger of global warming is the lack of fresh water and the associated changes in people’s lifestyles, savings, all kinds of crises, and changes in consumption patterns.

Another consequence of such warming could be a serious crisis in agriculture. Due to climate change within continents, it will no longer be possible to carry out the usual types of agricultural industry in one territory or another. Adapting the industry to new conditions will require a long time and a huge amount of resources. According to experts, due to global warming in Africa, food problems may begin as early as 2030.

Warming Island

A clear example of warming is the island of the same name in Greenland. Until 2005, it was considered a peninsula, but it turned out that it was connected to the mainland by ice. Having melted, it turned out that instead of a connection there was a strait. The island was renamed "Warming Island".

Fighting global warming

The main direction of the fight against global warming is the attempt to limit the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Thus, the largest environmental organizations, for example, Greenpeace or WWF, advocate abandoning investments in fossil fuels. Also, various types of actions are carried out in almost every country, but given the scale of the problem, the main mechanisms to combat it are international in nature.

Thus, within the framework of the UN Framework Convention in 1997, the Kyoto Agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions was concluded. It was signed by 192 countries around the world. Some have committed to reducing emissions by a specific percentage. For example, by 8% in the EU countries. Russia and Ukraine pledged to keep emissions in the 2000s at 1990s levels.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement that replaced the Kyoto Agreement was concluded in France; it was ratified by 96 countries. The agreement also commits countries to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the rate of increase in the planet's average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrialization eras. The agreement commits countries to moving towards a green, carbon-free economy by 2020, reducing emissions and contributing money to a climate fund. Russia signed the agreement, but did not ratify it. The US withdrew from it.

Global warming was once a fancy term used by scientists who were increasingly concerned about the effects of pollution on long-term weather patterns. Today, the idea of ​​global warming on earth is well known, but not entirely understood.
It's not unusual for someone to complain about a hot day and remark, “It's global warming.”

Well, is that so? In this article we will learn what global warming is, what causes it, what the current and possible future consequences are. While there is a scientific consensus on global warming, some aren't sure it's something we need to worry about.

We'll look at some of the proposed changes being made by scientists related to curbing global warming and the criticisms and concerns surrounding it.

Global warming is a significant increase in the temperature of the Earth over a relatively short period of time as a result of human activities.

In particular, an increase of 1 or more degrees Celsius over a period of one hundred to two hundred years will be considered as global warming of the Earth. Over the course of one century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant.

To understand what this means, let's start by looking at the difference between weather and climate.

What is weather and climate

The weather is local and short-term. If snow falls in the city where you live next Tuesday, it's the weather.

Climate is long-term and does not apply to one small location. The climate of an area is the average weather conditions in a region over a long period of time.

If the part you live in has cold winters with a lot of snow, that's the climate for the region you live in. We know, for example, that in some areas the winters were cold and snowy, so we know what to expect.

It's important to understand that when we talk about long-term climate, we really mean long-term. Even a few hundred years is pretty short term when it comes to climate. In fact, sometimes it takes tens of thousands of years. This means that if you are lucky enough to have a winter that is not as cold as usual, with little snow, or even two or three such winters in a row, it is not climate change. It is simply an anomaly—an event that falls outside the normal statistical range but does not represent any permanent long-term change.

Facts about global warming

It is also important to understand and know the facts about global warming as even small changes in climate can have serious consequences.

• When scientists talk about the “Ice Age,” you probably imagine a world frozen, covered in snow, and suffering from frigid temperatures. In fact, during the last Ice Age (ice ages recur approximately every 50,000 to 100,000 years), the average temperature of the earth was only 5 degrees Celsius cooler than today's average temperatures.
• Global warming is a significant increase in the Earth's temperature over a relatively short period of time as a result of human activities.
• In particular, an increase of 1 or more degrees Celsius over a period of one hundred to two hundred years will be considered global warming.
• Over the course of one century, an increase of even 0.4 degrees Celsius would be significant.
• Scientists have determined that the Earth warmed by 0.6 degrees Celsius between 1901 and 2000.
• Of the past 12 years, 11 have ranked among the warmest years since 1850. was 2016.
• The warming trend of the last 50 years is almost double the trend of the last 100 years, which means that the rate of warming is accelerating.
• Ocean temperatures increased to at least a depth of 3,000 meters; The ocean absorbs more than 80 percent of all heat added to the climate system.
• Glaciers and snow cover have decreased in regions in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, contributing to sea level rise.
• Average Arctic temperatures have nearly doubled the global average over the past 100 years.
• The area covered by frozen land in the Arctic has declined by about 7 percent since 1900, with seasonal declines of up to 15 percent.
• IN eastern regions Northern and South America, Northern Europe and parts of Asia experienced an increase in precipitation; in other regions, such as the Mediterranean and southern Africa, there is a drying trend.
• Droughts are more intense, lasting longer and covering larger areas than in the past.
• There were significant changes in temperature extremes - hot days and heat waves were more frequent while cold days and nights were less frequent.
• Although scientists have not observed an increase in the number of tropical storms, they have observed an increase in the intensity of such storms in Atlantic Ocean, correlating with rising ocean surface temperatures.

Natural climate changes

Scientists have determined that it takes thousands of years for the Earth to naturally warm or cool 1 degree. In addition to the repeating cycles of the Ice Age, the Earth's climate may change due to volcanic activity, differences in plant life, changes in the amount of radiation from the sun, and natural changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Global warming on Earth is caused by an increase in the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect itself allows our planet to remain warm enough for life.

While it's not a perfect analogy, you can think of the Earth as your car parked on a sunny day. You've probably noticed that the inside of a car is always much hotter than the temperature outside if the car has been sitting in the sun for some time. The sun's rays penetrate through the car windows. Some of the heat from the sun is absorbed by the seats, dashboard, carpeting and floor mats. When these objects release this heat, it doesn't all escape through the windows. Some heat is reflected back. The heat emitted by the seats differs in wavelength from sunlight who came through the windows in the first place.

So a certain amount of energy comes in and less energy goes out. The result is a gradual increase in temperature inside the car.

The essence of the greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect and its essence are much more complex than the temperature in the sun inside the car. When the sun's rays hit the Earth's atmosphere and surface, approximately 70 percent of the energy remains on the planet, absorbed by the land, oceans, plants and other things. The remaining 30 percent is reflected in space by clouds, snowy fields and other reflective surfaces. But even the 70 percent that passes does not remain on the earth forever (otherwise the earth will become a blazing fireball). The Earth's oceans and land masses eventually radiate heat. Some of this heat ends up in space. The rest is absorbed and ends up in certain parts of the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, methane gas and water vapor. These components in our atmosphere absorb all the heat that they emit. Heat that does not penetrate the Earth's atmosphere keeps the planet warmer than in outer space because more energy enters through the atmosphere than exits. This is the essence of the greenhouse effect, which keeps the earth warm.

Earth without greenhouse effect

What would the Earth look like if there were no greenhouse effect at all? It will likely be very similar to Mars. Mars doesn't have a thick enough atmosphere to reflect enough heat back to the planet, so it gets very cold there.

Some scientists have suggested that if implemented, we could terraform the surface of Mars by sending out “factories” that would spew water vapor and carbon dioxide into the air. If enough material can be created, the atmosphere can begin to thicken enough to retain more heat and allow plants to live on the surface. Once plants spread across Mars, they would begin to produce oxygen. In a few hundred or thousand years, Mars may actually have an environment where humans can simply walk, thanks to the greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse effect occurs due to certain natural substances in the atmosphere. Unfortunately, humans have been pouring huge amounts of these substances into the air since the Industrial Revolution. The main ones are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a colorless gas that is a by-product of combustion of organic matter. It makes up less than 0.04 percent of Earth's atmosphere, most of which was deposited by volcanic activity very early in the planet's life. Today human activity pumps huge volumes of CO2 into the atmosphere, leading to an overall increase in carbon dioxide concentrations. These elevated concentrations are considered a major contributor to global warming because carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation. Most of the energy that leaves Earth's atmosphere comes in this form, so extra CO2 means more energy absorption and an overall rise in the planet's temperature.

Carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Earth's largest volcano Mauna Loa, Hawaii reports that carbon dioxide emissions worldwide have increased from about 1 billion tons in 1900 to about 7 billion tons in 1995. also notes that the average temperature of the Earth's surface increased from 14.5 degrees C in 1860 to 15.3 degrees C in 1980.

The pre-industrial amount of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere was about 280 parts per million, which means that for every million molecules of dry air, 280 of them were CO2. In contrast to the 2017 level, CO2 share is 379 mg.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is another important greenhouse gas. Although the amounts released by human activity are not as large as the amount of CO2, nitrous oxide absorbs much more energy than CO2 (about 270 times more). For this reason, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also focus on N2O. Using large amounts of nitrogen fertilizer on crops releases nitrous oxide in large quantities and is also a byproduct of combustion.

Methane is a flammable gas and is the main component of natural gas. Methane occurs naturally through the decomposition of organic material and is often found as “swamp gas.”

Man-made processes produce methane in several ways:

• By extracting it from coal
• From large herds of livestock (i.e. digestive gases)
• From bacteria in rice fields
• Decomposition of waste in landfills

Methane acts in the same way as carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, absorbing infrared energy and storing thermal energy on the ground. The concentration of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 was 1,774 parts per billion. Although there is not as much methane in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, methane can absorb and release twenty times more heat than CO2. Some scientists even suggest that large-scale release of methane into the atmosphere (for example, due to the release of huge chunks of methane ice trapped beneath the oceans) could have created the short periods of intense global warming that led to some of the mass extinctions in the planet's distant past.

Carbon dioxide and methane concentrations

Concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in 2018 exceeded their natural limits over the past 650,000 years. Much of this increase in concentration is due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Scientists know that an average drop of just 5 degrees Celsius over thousands of years could trigger an ice age.

• If the temperature increases

So what would happen if the Earth's average temperature increased by a few degrees in just a few hundred years? There is no clear answer. Even short-term weather forecasts are never completely accurate because weather is a complex phenomenon. When it comes to long-term climate forecasts, all we can manage are guesses based on knowledge of climate through history.

However, it can be stated that glaciers and ice shelves melting all over the world. The loss of large areas of surface ice could accelerate Earth's global warming because less energy from the sun would be reflected. The immediate result of melting glaciers will be rising sea levels. Initially, sea level rise will be only 3-5 centimeters. Even a small rise in sea level can cause flooding problems in low-lying coastal areas. However, if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melts and collapses into the sea, it will raise sea levels by 10 meters and many coastal areas will disappear completely under the ocean.

Research Projections Show Sea Level Rise

Scientists estimate that sea levels rose by 17 centimeters in the 20th century. Scientists predict sea levels will rise throughout the 21st century, with levels rising between 17 and 50 centimeters by 2100. Scientists cannot yet address changes in ice flow in these forecasts due to a lack of scientific data. Sea levels are likely to be higher than the forecast range, but we can't be sure how much until more data is collected on the effects of global warming on ice flows.

As overall ocean temperatures rise, ocean storms such as tropical storms and hurricanes, which derive their fierce and destructive energy from the warm waters they pass through, may increase in strength.

If rising temperatures affect glaciers and ice shelves, could the polar ice caps be at risk of melting and rising oceans?

Impact of water vapor and other greenhouse gases

Water vapor is the most common greenhouse gas, but it is most often the result of climate change rather than anthropogenic emissions. Water or moisture on the Earth's surface absorbs heat from the sun and environment. When enough heat has been absorbed, some of the liquid molecules may have enough energy to evaporate and begin to rise into the atmosphere as vapor. As the steam rises higher and higher, the temperature of the surrounding air becomes lower and lower. Eventually, the steam loses enough heat to the surrounding air to allow it to return to the liquid. The gravitational pull of the earth then causes the liquid to “fall” down, completing the cycle. This cycle is also called “positive feedback.”

Water vapor is harder to measure than other greenhouse gases, and scientists aren't sure exactly what role it plays in Earth's global warming. Scientists believe there is a correlation between the increase in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere and the increase in water vapor.

As water vapor increases in the atmosphere, more of it ends up condensing into clouds, which are more able to reflect solar radiation (allowing less energy to reach earth's surface and heat it up).

Are the polar ice caps in danger of melting and rising oceans? It might happen, but no one knows when it might happen.

The earth's main ice sheet is Antarctica at the South Pole, where about 90 percent of the world's ice and 70 percent of its fresh water are found. Antarctica is covered with ice averaging 2133 m thick.

If all the ice in Antarctica melts, sea levels around the world will rise by about 61 meters. But the average air temperature in Antarctica is -37 ° C, so the ice there is not in danger of melting.

On the other side of the world, at the North Pole, the ice is not as thick as at the South Pole. Ice floats in the Arctic Ocean. If it melts, sea level will not be affected.

There is a significant amount of ice covering Greenland, which would add another 7 meters to the oceans if it melted. Because Greenland is closer to the equator than Antarctica, temperatures are higher there, so the ice is likely to melt. University scientists say ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland combined accounts for about 12 percent of sea level rise.

But there may be a less dramatic reason for higher sea levels than melting polar ice: higher water temperatures.

Water is most dense at 4 degrees Celsius.

Above and below this temperature, the density of water decreases (the same weight of water takes up more space). As the overall temperature of water increases, it naturally expands slightly causing the oceans to rise.

Less sudden changes would occur worldwide as average temperatures would increase. Temperate climates with four seasons will have a longer growing season with more rainfall. This can be useful in many ways for these areas. However, less temperate areas of the world are likely to see rising temperatures and sharp declines in precipitation, leading to prolonged droughts and potentially creating deserts.

Because Earth's climate is so complex, no one is sure how much climate change in one region will affect other regions. Some scientists theoretically believe that the decrease sea ​​ice in the Arctic may reduce snowfall because Arctic cold fronts will be less intense. This could affect everything from farmland to the ski industry.

What are the consequences

The most devastating effects of global warming, and also the most difficult to predict, are the responses of the world's living ecosystems. Many ecosystems are very delicate, and the slightest change can kill several species, as well as any other species that depend on them. Most ecosystems are interconnected, so chain reaction the impact may be immeasurable. The results could be something like a forest gradually dying off into grassland or entire coral reefs dying.

Many plant and animal species have adapted to cope with climate change, but many have gone extinct.

Some ecosystems are already changing dramatically due to climate change. American climate scientists report that much of what was once tundra in Northern Canada is turning into forests. They also noticed that the transition from tundra to forest is not linear. Instead, the change seems to occur in fits and starts.

The human costs and consequences of global warming are difficult to quantify. Thousands of lives a year can be lost as the elderly or sick suffer from heatstroke and other heat-related injuries. Poor and underdeveloped countries will suffer the worst consequences as they will not have the financial resources to deal with rising temperatures. Huge numbers of people could die from starvation if reduced rainfall limits crop growth and from disease if coastal flooding leads to widespread waterborne disease.

It is estimated that farmers lose about 40 million tons of grains like wheat, barley and corn every year. Scientists have found that an increase in average temperature of 1 degree leads to a decrease in yield by 3-5%.

Is global warming a real problem?

Despite the scientific consensus on the issue, some people don't think global warming is happening at all. There are several reasons for this:

They don't think the data shows a measurable upward trend in global temperatures, either because we don't have enough long-term historical climate data or because the data we do have isn't clear enough.

Some scientists believe the data is being misinterpreted by people already concerned about global warming. That is, these people are looking for evidence of global warming in statistics, rather than looking at the evidence objectively and trying to understand what it means.

Some argue that any increase in global temperatures we are seeing could be natural climate change, or it could be due to factors other than greenhouse gases.

Most scientists accept that global warming appears to be happening on Earth, but some don't believe it's a big deal. These scientists say the Earth is more resilient to climate change on this scale than we think. Plants and animals will adapt to subtle shifts in weather patterns, and it is unlikely that anything catastrophic will happen as a result of global warming. Slightly longer growing seasons, changes in precipitation levels and stronger weather are generally not catastrophic, they say. They also argue that the economic damage caused by reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be far more detrimental to humans than any of the effects of global warming.

In some ways, scientific consensus can be controversial. The real power to effect significant change lies in the hands of those who make national and global policies. Policymakers in many countries are reluctant to propose and implement changes because they feel the costs may outweigh any risks associated with global warming.

Some common climate policy issues:

• Changing carbon emissions and production policies could lead to job losses.
• India and China, which continue to rely heavily on coal as their main source of energy, will continue to cause environmental problems.

Because the scientific evidence are about probabilities rather than certainties, we cannot be sure that human behavior is contributing to global warming, that our contribution is significant, or that we can do anything to correct it.

Some believe that technology will find a way to get us out of the global warming mess, so any changes in our policies will ultimately be unnecessary and cause more harm than good.

What's the correct answer? This may be difficult to understand. Most scientists will tell you that global warming is real and that it will likely cause some harm, but the scale of the problem and the dangers posed by its effects are widely open to debate.

A lot is being said and written about global warming. Almost every day new hypotheses appear and old ones are refuted. We are constantly frightened by what awaits us in the future (I remember well the comment of one of the readers of the magazine www.priroda.su “They have been frightening us for so long and terribly that it is no longer scary”). Many statements and articles openly contradict each other, misleading us. Global warming has already become a “global confusion” for many, and some have completely lost all interest in the problem of climate change. Let's try to systematize the available information by creating a kind of mini encyclopedia of global warming.

1. What is global warming?

5. Man and the greenhouse effect

1. Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean, due to various reasons (an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, changes in solar or volcanic activity, etc.). Very often the phrase “greenhouse effect” is used as a synonym for global warming, but there is a slight difference between these concepts. The greenhouse effect is an increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean due to an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, etc.) in the Earth's atmosphere. These gases act as a film or glass of a greenhouse (greenhouse); they freely transmit the sun's rays to the Earth's surface and retain heat leaving the planet's atmosphere. We will look at this process in more detail below.

People first started talking about global warming and the greenhouse effect in the 60s of the 20th century, and at the UN level the problem of global climate change was first raised in 1980. Since then, many scientists have puzzled over this problem, often mutually refuting each other’s theories and assumptions.

2. Ways to obtain information about climate change

Existing technologies make it possible to reliably judge ongoing climate changes. Scientists use the following “tools” to substantiate their theories of climate change:

Historical chronicles and chronicles;

Meteorological observations;

Satellite measurements of ice area, vegetation, climatic zones and atmospheric processes;

Analysis of paleontological (remains of ancient animals and plants) and archaeological data;

Analysis of sedimentary oceanic rocks and river sediments;

Analysis of ancient ice of the Arctic and Antarctica (ratio of O16 and O18 isotopes);

Measuring the rate of melting of glaciers and permafrost, the intensity of iceberg formation;

Observation of the Earth's sea currents;

Observation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and ocean;

Observation of changes in the habitats of living organisms;

Analysis of tree rings and the chemical composition of plant tissues.

3. Facts about global warming

Paleontological evidence suggests that the Earth's climate was not constant. Warm periods were followed by cold glacial ones. During warm periods, the average annual temperature of the Arctic latitudes rose to 7 - 13 ° C, and the temperature of the coldest month of January was 4-6 degrees, i.e. climatic conditions in our Arctic differed little from the climate of modern Crimea. Warm periods were sooner or later replaced by cold snaps, during which the ice reached modern tropical latitudes.

Man has also witnessed a number of climate changes. At the beginning of the second millennium (11th-13th centuries) historical chronicles indicate that a large area of ​​Greenland was not covered with ice (which is why Norwegian navigators dubbed it the “green land”). Then the Earth's climate became harsher, and Greenland was almost completely covered with ice. In the 15th-17th centuries, harsh winters reached their apogee. Many historical chronicles testify to the severity of the winters of that time, as well as works of art. Thus, the famous painting by the Dutch artist Jan Van Goyen “The Skaters” (1641) depicts mass skating on the canals of Amsterdam; at present, the canals of Holland have not frozen for a long time. Even the River Thames in England froze during medieval winters. There was a slight warming in the 18th century, which peaked in 1770. The 19th century was again marked by another cold snap, which lasted until 1900, and from the beginning of the 20th century quite rapid warming began. Already by 1940, the amount of ice in the Greenland Sea had been reduced by half, in the Barents Sea by almost a third, and in the Soviet sector of the Arctic, the total ice area had decreased by almost half (1 million km2). During this period of time, even ordinary ships (not icebreakers) calmly sailed along the northern sea route from the western to eastern outskirts of the country. It was then that a significant increase in the temperature of the Arctic seas was recorded, and a significant retreat of glaciers in the Alps and the Caucasus was noted. The total ice area of ​​the Caucasus decreased by 10%, and the thickness of the ice in some places decreased by as much as 100 meters. The temperature increase in Greenland was 5°C, and in Spitsbergen it was 9°C.

In 1940, the warming gave way to a short-term cooling, which was soon replaced by another warming, and since 1979, a rapid increase in the temperature of the surface layer of the Earth’s atmosphere began, which caused another acceleration in the melting of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and an increase in winter temperatures in temperate latitudes. Thus, over the past 50 years, the thickness of Arctic ice has decreased by 40%, and residents of a number of Siberian cities have begun to note that severe frosts have long been a thing of the past. The average winter temperature in Siberia has increased by almost ten degrees over the past fifty years. In some regions of Russia, the frost-free period has increased by two to three weeks. The habitat of many living organisms has shifted to the north following rising average winter temperatures; we will talk about these and other consequences of global warming below. It is especially clear about global changes The climate is evidenced by old photographs of glaciers (all photographs were taken in the same month).

Photographs of the melting Pasterze glacier in Austria in 1875 (left) and 2004 (right). Photographer Gary Braasch

Photos of the Agassiz Glacier national park glaciers (Canada) in 1913 and 2005. Photographer W.C. Alden

Photos of Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park (Canada) in 1938 and 2005. Photographer: Mt. Gould.

The same Grinnell glacier from a different angle, photographs from 1940 and 2004. Photographer: K. Holzer.

In general, over the past hundred years, the average temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere has increased by 0.3-0.8 ° C, the area of ​​snow cover in the northern hemisphere has decreased by 8%, and the level of the World Ocean has risen by an average of 10-20 centimeters. These facts cause some concern. Whether global warming will stop or whether the average annual temperature on Earth will continue to rise, the answer to this question will appear only when the causes of the ongoing climate changes are precisely established.

4. Causes of global warming

Hypothesis 1- Global warming is caused by change solar activity

All ongoing climate processes on the planet depend on the activity of our luminary - the Sun. Therefore, even the smallest changes in the activity of the Sun will certainly affect the weather and climate of the Earth. There are 11-year, 22-year, and 80-90 year (Glaisberg) cycles of solar activity.

It is likely that the observed global warming is associated with another increase in solar activity, which may decline again in the future.

Hypothesis 2 – The cause of global warming is a change in the angle of the Earth’s rotation axis and its orbit

Yugoslav astronomer Milanković suggested that cyclical climate changes are largely associated with changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, as well as changes in the angle of inclination of the Earth's rotation axis relative to the Sun. Such orbital changes in the position and movement of the planet cause a change in the Earth’s radiation balance, and therefore its climate. Milankovitch, guided by his theory, quite accurately calculated the times and extent of ice ages in the past of our planet. Climate changes caused by changes in the Earth's orbit usually occur over tens or even hundreds of thousands of years. The relatively rapid climate change observed at the present time apparently occurs as a result of the action of some other factors.

Hypothesis 3 - The culprit of global climate change is the ocean

The world's oceans are a huge inertial battery solar energy. It largely determines the direction and speed of movement of warm oceanic and air masses on Earth, which greatly influence the planet’s climate. At present, the nature of heat circulation in the ocean water column has been little studied. It is known that the average temperature of the ocean waters is 3.5°C, and the average temperature of the land surface is 15°C, therefore the intensity of heat exchange between the ocean and the surface layer of the atmosphere can lead to significant climate changes. In addition, a large amount of CO2 is dissolved in ocean waters (about 140 trillion tons, which is 60 times more than in the atmosphere) and a number of other greenhouse gases; as a result of certain natural processes, these gases can enter the atmosphere, significantly affecting Earth's climate.

Hypothesis 4 - Volcanic activity

Volcanic activity is a source of aerosols of sulfuric acid and large amounts of carbon dioxide entering the Earth's atmosphere, which can also significantly affect the Earth's climate. Major eruptions initially accompanied by cooling due to the entry of sulfuric acid aerosols and soot particles into the Earth's atmosphere. Subsequently, the CO2 released during the eruption causes an increase in the average annual temperature on Earth. The subsequent long-term decrease in volcanic activity contributes to an increase in the transparency of the atmosphere, and therefore an increase in temperature on the planet.

Hypothesis 5 - Unknown interactions between the Sun and the planets of the Solar System

It is not for nothing that the word “system” is mentioned in the phrase “Solar System”, and in any system, as is known, there are connections between its components. Therefore, it is possible that the relative position of the planets and the Sun can influence the distribution and strength of gravitational fields, solar energy, as well as other types of energy. All connections and interactions between the Sun, planets and the Earth have not yet been studied and it is possible that they have a significant impact on the processes occurring in the atmosphere and hydrosphere of the Earth.

Hypothesis 6 - Climate change can occur on its own without any external influences and human activities

Planet Earth is such a large and complex system with a huge number of structural elements that its global climatic characteristics can change significantly without any changes in solar activity and the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Various mathematical models show that over the course of a century, fluctuations in the temperature of the surface air layer (fluctuations) can reach 0.4°C. As a comparison, we can cite the body temperature of a healthy person, which varies throughout the day and even over the course of an hour.

Hypothesis 7 - It’s all human fault

The most popular hypothesis today. The high rate of climate change occurring in recent decades can indeed be explained by the ever-increasing intensification of anthropogenic activity, which has a noticeable impact on chemical composition atmosphere of our planet towards an increase in the content of greenhouse gases in it. Indeed, an increase in the average air temperature of the lower layers of the Earth’s atmosphere by 0.8°C over the past 100 years is too high speed For natural processes, earlier in Earth's history such changes occurred over thousands of years. Recent decades have added even more weight to this argument, as changes in average air temperature have occurred at an even faster rate - 0.3-0.4 ° C over the past 15 years!

It is likely that the current global warming is the result of many factors. You can find other hypotheses about global warming here.

5.Man and the Greenhouse Effect

Proponents of the latter hypothesis assign a key role in global warming to humans, who radically change the composition of the atmosphere, contributing to the growth of the greenhouse effect of the Earth's atmosphere.

The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere of our planet is caused by the fact that the flow of energy in the infrared range of the spectrum, rising from the surface of the Earth, is absorbed by molecules of atmospheric gases and radiated back in different directions, as a result, half of the energy absorbed by the molecules of greenhouse gases returns back to the surface of the Earth, causing it warming up It should be noted that the greenhouse effect is a natural atmospheric phenomenon. If there were no greenhouse effect on Earth at all, then the average temperature on our planet would be about -21°C, but thanks to greenhouse gases, it is +14°C. Therefore, purely theoretically, human activity associated with the release of greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere should lead to further heating of the planet.

Let's take a closer look at greenhouse gases that can potentially cause global warming. The number one greenhouse gas is water vapor, which contributes 20.6°C to the current atmospheric greenhouse effect. In second place is CO2, its contribution is about 7.2°C. The increase in carbon dioxide content in the Earth's atmosphere is now of greatest concern, since the growing active use of hydrocarbons by humanity will continue in the near future. Over the past two and a half centuries (since the beginning of the industrial era), the CO2 content in the atmosphere has already increased by approximately 30%.

In third place in our “greenhouse rating” is ozone, its contribution to overall global warming is 2.4 °C. Unlike other greenhouse gases, human activity, on the contrary, causes a decrease in the content of ozone in the Earth's atmosphere. Next comes nitrous oxide, its contribution to the greenhouse effect is estimated at 1.4°C. The content of nitrous oxide in the planet's atmosphere tends to increase; over the past two and a half centuries, the concentration of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere has increased by 17%. Large amounts of nitrous oxide enter the Earth's atmosphere as a result of the combustion of various wastes. The list of main greenhouse gases is completed by methane; its contribution to the total greenhouse effect is 0.8°C. The methane content in the atmosphere is growing very quickly; over two and a half centuries this increase amounted to 150%. The main sources of methane in the Earth's atmosphere are decomposing waste, cattle, and the breakdown of natural compounds containing methane. Of particular concern is that the ability to absorb infrared radiation per unit mass of methane is 21 times higher than that of carbon dioxide.

The largest role in global warming is played by water vapor and carbon dioxide. They account for more than 95% of the total greenhouse effect. It is thanks to these two gaseous substances The Earth's atmosphere warms up by 33°C. Anthropogenic activity has the greatest impact on the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, and the content of water vapor in the atmosphere increases following the temperature on the planet, due to an increase in evaporation. The total man-made emission of CO2 into the Earth's atmosphere is 1.8 billion tons/year, the total amount of carbon dioxide that binds the Earth's vegetation as a result of photosynthesis is 43 billion tons/year, but almost all of this amount of carbon is a result of plant respiration, fires, and decomposition processes again ends up in the planet's atmosphere and only 45 million tons/year of carbon is deposited in plant tissues, land swamps and the depths of the ocean. These figures show that human activity has the potential to be a significant force influencing the Earth's climate.

6. Factors accelerating and slowing down global warming

Planet Earth is such a complex system that there are many factors that directly or indirectly affect the planet's climate, accelerating or slowing down global warming.

Factors accelerating global warming:

Emission of CO2, methane, nitrous oxide as a result of human anthropogenic activities;

Decomposition, due to increased temperature, of geochemical sources of carbonates with the release of CO2. IN earth's crust there is 50,000 times more carbon dioxide in the bound state than in the atmosphere;

An increase in the content of water vapor in the Earth’s atmosphere, due to an increase in temperature, and therefore the evaporation of ocean water;

The release of CO2 by the World Ocean due to its heating (the solubility of gases decreases with increasing water temperature). With each degree the water temperature increases, the solubility of CO2 in it decreases by 3%. The oceans contain 60 times more CO2 than the Earth's atmosphere (140 trillion tons);

A decrease in the Earth's albedo (the reflectivity of the planet's surface) due to melting glaciers, changes in climatic zones and vegetation. The surface of the sea reflects significantly less sunlight than the polar glaciers and snow of the planet; mountains without glaciers also have a lower albedo; woody vegetation moving north has a lower albedo than tundra plants. Over the past five years, the Earth's albedo has already decreased by 2.5%;

Methane release when permafrost melts;

Decomposition of methane hydrates - crystalline icy compounds of water and methane contained in the polar regions of the Earth.

Factors that slow down global warming:

Global warming is causing speed to slow down ocean currents, a slowdown in the warm Gulf Stream will cause a decrease in temperatures in the Arctic;

As the temperature on Earth increases, evaporation increases, and hence cloudiness, which is a certain kind of barrier to the path of sunlight. Cloud cover increases by approximately 0.4% for every degree of warming;

With increasing evaporation, the amount of precipitation increases, which contributes to waterlogging, and swamps, as is known, are one of the main CO2 depots;

An increase in temperature will contribute to the expansion of the area of ​​warm seas, and therefore the expansion of the range of mollusks and coral reefs, these organisms accept Active participation in the deposition of CO2, which is used for the construction of shells;

An increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere stimulates the growth and development of plants, which are active acceptors (consumers) of this greenhouse gas.

7. Possible scenarios global climate change

Global climate change is very complex, so modern science cannot give a definite answer to what awaits us in the near future. There are many scenarios for the development of the situation.

Scenario 1 - global warming will occur gradually

The Earth is a very large and complex system, consisting of a large number of interconnected structural components. The planet has a moving atmosphere, the movement of air masses of which distributes thermal energy across the latitudes of the planet; on Earth there is a huge accumulator of heat and gases - the World Ocean (the ocean accumulates 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere) Changes in such complex system cannot happen quickly. Centuries and millennia will pass before any significant climate change can be judged.

Scenario 2 - global warming will occur relatively quickly

The most “popular” scenario at present. According to various estimates, over the past hundred years the average temperature on our planet has increased by 0.5-1°C, the concentration of CO2 has increased by 20-24%, and methane by 100%. In the future, these processes will continue further and by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature of the Earth's surface may increase from 1.1 to 6.4 ° C, compared to 1990 (according to IPCC forecasts from 1.4 to 5.8 ° C). Further melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice could accelerate global warming due to changes in the planet's albedo. According to some scientists, only the ice caps of the planet, due to the reflection of solar radiation, cool our Earth by 2°C, and the ice covering the surface of the ocean significantly slows down the processes of heat exchange between the relatively warm ocean waters and the colder surface layer of the atmosphere. In addition, there is practically no main greenhouse gas - water vapor - above the ice caps, since it is frozen out.

Global warming will be accompanied by rising sea levels. From 1995 to 2005, the level of the World Ocean has already risen by 4 cm, instead of the predicted 2 cm. If the level of the World Ocean continues to rise at the same speed, then by the end of the 21st century the total rise in its level will be 30 - 50 cm, which will cause partial flooding of many coastal areas, especially the populous coast of Asia. It should be remembered that about 100 million people on Earth live at an altitude of less than 88 centimeters above sea level.

In addition to rising sea levels, global warming affects the strength of winds and the distribution of precipitation on the planet. As a result, the frequency and scale of various natural disasters (storms, hurricanes, droughts, floods) on the planet will increase.

Currently, 2% of all land is suffering from drought; according to some scientists, by 2050, up to 10% of all continental lands will be affected by drought. In addition, the distribution of precipitation between seasons will change.

In Northern Europe and the western United States, the amount of precipitation and the frequency of storms will increase, hurricanes will rage 2 times more often than in the 20th century. The climate of Central Europe will become changeable, in the heart of Europe winters will become warmer and summers will be rainier. Eastern and Southern Europe, including the Mediterranean, are facing drought and heat.

Scenario 3 - Global warming in some parts of the Earth will be replaced by short-term cooling

It is known that one of the factors in the occurrence of ocean currents is the temperature gradient (difference) between arctic and tropical waters. The melting of polar ice contributes to an increase in the temperature of Arctic waters, and therefore causes a decrease in the temperature difference between tropical and Arctic waters, which will inevitably lead to a slowdown in currents in the future.

One of the most famous warm currents is the Gulf Stream, thanks to which in many countries of Northern Europe the average annual temperature is 10 degrees higher than in other similar climatic zones of the Earth. It is clear that stopping this oceanic heat conveyor will greatly affect the Earth's climate. Already, the Gulf Stream has become weaker by 30% compared to 1957. Math modeling showed that in order to completely stop the Gulf Stream, an increase in temperature of 2-2.5 degrees will be enough. Currently, North Atlantic temperatures have already warmed 0.2 degrees compared to the 70s. If the Gulf Stream stops, the average annual temperature in Europe will drop by 1 degree by 2010, and after 2010 the average annual temperature will continue to rise further. Other mathematical models “promise” more severe cooling in Europe.

According to these mathematical calculations, a complete stop of the Gulf Stream will occur in 20 years, as a result of which the climate of Northern Europe, Ireland, Iceland and Great Britain may become 4-6 degrees colder than the present, rains will increase and storms will become more frequent. The cold snap will also affect the Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia and the north of European Russia. After 2020-2030, warming in Europe will resume according to scenario No. 2.

Scenario 4 - Global warming will be replaced by global cooling

Stopping the Gulf Stream and other ocean streams will cause global cooling on Earth and the onset of the next ice age.

Scenario 5 – Greenhouse catastrophe

The greenhouse catastrophe is the most “unpleasant” scenario for the development of global warming processes. The author of the theory is our scientist Karnaukhov, its essence is as follows. An increase in the average annual temperature on Earth, due to an increase in the content of anthropogenic CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, will cause the transition of CO2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere, and will also provoke the decomposition of sedimentary carbonate rocks with the additional release of carbon dioxide, which, in turn, will raise the temperature on Earth even higher, which will entail further decomposition of carbonates lying in the deeper layers of the earth's crust (the ocean contains 60 times more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere, and the earth's crust contains almost 50,000 times more). Glaciers will melt rapidly, reducing the Earth's albedo. Such a rapid increase in temperature will contribute to the intensive flow of methane from melting permafrost, and an increase in temperature to 1.4-5.8 ° C by the end of the century will contribute to the decomposition of methane hydrates (icey compounds of water and methane), concentrated mainly in cold places on the Earth. Considering that methane is 21 times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2, the rise in temperature on Earth will be catastrophic. To better imagine what will happen to the Earth, it is best to pay attention to our neighbor in solar system- planet Venus. With the same atmospheric parameters as on Earth, the temperature on Venus should be only 60°C higher than Earth’s (Venus is closer than Earth to the Sun), i.e. be around 75°C, but in reality the temperature on Venus is almost 500°C. Most of the carbonate and methane-containing compounds on Venus were destroyed a long time ago, releasing carbon dioxide and methane. Currently, the atmosphere of Venus consists of 98% CO2, which leads to an increase in the temperature of the planet by almost 400 ° C

If global warming follows the same scenario as on Venus, then the temperature of the surface layers of the atmosphere on Earth could reach 150 degrees. An increase in the Earth's temperature even by 50°C will put an end to human civilization, and an increase in temperature by 150°C will cause the death of almost all living organisms on the planet.

According to Karnaukhov’s optimistic scenario, if the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere remains at the same level, then the temperature on Earth will reach 50°C in 300 years, and 150°C in 6000 years. Unfortunately, progress cannot be stopped; CO2 emissions are only growing every year. Under a realistic scenario, according to which CO2 emissions will grow at the same rate, doubling every 50 years, the temperature on Earth will already be 502 in 100 years, and 150°C in 300 years.

8. Consequences of global warming

An increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere will be felt more strongly over the continents than over the oceans, which in the future will cause a radical restructuring natural areas continents. A shift of several zones to the Arctic and Antarctic latitudes is already being observed.

The permafrost zone has already shifted northward by hundreds of kilometers. Some scientists argue that due to the rapid thawing of permafrost and rising sea levels, in recent years the Arctic Ocean has been advancing on land at an average speed of 3-6 meters per summer, and on the Arctic islands and capes, high-ice rocks are destroyed and absorbed by the sea during the warm season at a speed of up to 20-30 meters. Entire Arctic islands are disappearing completely; so in the 21st century the island of Muostakh near the mouth of the Lena River will disappear.

With a further increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere, the tundra may almost completely disappear in the European part of Russia and will remain only on the Arctic coast of Siberia.

The taiga zone will shift north by 500-600 kilometers and shrink in area by almost a third, the area of ​​deciduous forests will increase 3-5 times, and if moisture allows, the belt of deciduous forests will stretch in a continuous strip from the Baltic to the Pacific Ocean.

Forest-steppes and steppes will also move north and cover Smolensk, Kaluga, Tula, Ryazan region, coming close to the southern borders of the Moscow and Vladimir regions.

Global warming will also affect animal habitats. A change in the habitats of living organisms has already been observed in many parts of the globe. The gray-headed thrush has already begun to nest in Greenland, starlings and swallows have appeared in subarctic Iceland, and the egret has appeared in Britain. The warming of Arctic ocean waters is especially noticeable. Many game fish are now found in places where they were not found before. In the waters of Greenland, cod and herring appeared in quantities sufficient for their commercial fishing, in the waters of Great Britain - inhabitants of the southern latitudes: red trout, big-headed turtle, in the Far Eastern Gulf of Peter the Great - Pacific sardine, and in the Sea of ​​​​Okhotsk, mackerel and saury appeared. The range of the brown bear in North America has already moved north to such an extent that hybrids of polar and brown bears began to appear, and in the southern part of their range brown bears stopped hibernating altogether.

An increase in temperature creates favorable conditions for the development of diseases, which is facilitated not only by high temperature and humidity, but also by the expansion of the habitat of a number of animals that carry diseases. By the middle of the 21st century, the incidence of malaria is expected to increase by 60%. Increased development of microflora and lack of clean drinking water will contribute to the growth of infectious intestinal diseases. The rapid proliferation of microorganisms in the air can increase the incidence of asthma, allergies and various respiratory diseases.

Thanks to global climate change, the next half century may be the last in the lives of many species of living organisms. Already, polar bears, walruses and seals are losing an important component of their habitat - Arctic ice.

Global warming has both pros and cons for our country. Winters will become less severe, lands with a climate suitable for farming will move further north (in the European part of Russia to the White and Kara Seas, in Siberia to the Arctic Circle), in many areas of the country it will become possible to grow more southern crops and earlier ripening of the former. It is expected that by 2060 the average temperature in Russia will reach 0 degrees Celsius; now it is -5.3°C.

Unpredictable consequences will result from the melting of permafrost; as is known, permafrost covers 2/3 of the area of ​​Russia and 1/4 of the area of ​​the entire Northern Hemisphere. On permafrost Russian Federation there are many cities, thousands of kilometers of pipelines have been laid, as well as automobile and railways(80% of the BAM passes through permafrost). Thawing of permafrost can be accompanied by significant destruction. Large territories may become unsuitable for human life. Some scientists express concern that Siberia may even find itself cut off from the European part of Russia and become the object of claims of other countries.

Other countries in the world are also facing dramatic changes. In general, according to most models, precipitation is expected to increase in winter in high latitudes(above 50° northern and southern latitudes), as well as in temperate latitudes. In southern latitudes, on the contrary, a decrease in the amount of precipitation (up to 20%) is expected, especially in the summer. The countries of Southern Europe that rely on tourism are expecting large economic losses. The dry summer heat and winter heavy rains will reduce the “ardor” of those wishing to relax in Italy, Greece, Spain and France. For many other countries that live off tourists, it will also be far from better times. Fans of skiing in the Alps will be disappointed; the snow in the mountains will be “tense.” In many countries around the world, living conditions are deteriorating significantly. The UN estimates that by the middle of the 21st century there will be up to 200 million climate refugees in the world.

9. Ways to prevent global warming

There is an opinion that in the future man will try to take control of the Earth's climate; time will tell how successful this will be. If humanity fails to do this and does not change its way of life, then the species Homo sapiens awaits the fate of the dinosaurs.

Already, progressive minds are thinking about how to neutralize the processes of global warming. Such original ways to prevent global warming are proposed, such as breeding new varieties of plants and tree species whose leaves have a higher albedo, painting roofs in White color, installation of mirrors in low-Earth orbit, shelter from the sun's rays of glaciers, etc. A lot of effort is spent on replacing traditional types of energy based on the combustion of carbon raw materials with non-traditional ones, such as the production of solar panels, wind turbines, the construction of tidal power plants, hydroelectric power stations, and nuclear power plants. We offer original traditional ways energy production such as heat use human bodies for heating rooms, using sunlight to prevent the appearance of ice on roads, as well as a number of others. Energy hunger and fear of threatening global warming do wonders for the human brain. New and original ideas are born almost every day.

Much attention is paid to the rational use of energy resources.

To reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, engine efficiency is improved and hybrid cars are produced.

In the future, it is planned to pay great attention to the capture of greenhouse gases during the production of electricity, as well as directly from the atmosphere by burying plant organisms, using ingenious artificial trees, and pumping carbon dioxide to many kilometers deep in the ocean, where it will dissolve in the water column. Most of the listed methods for “neutralizing” CO2 are very expensive. Currently, the cost of capturing one ton of CO2 is approximately 100-300 dollars, which exceeds the market value of a ton of oil, and given that the combustion of one ton approximately produces three tons of CO2, then many methods for sequestering carbon dioxide are not yet relevant. Previously proposed methods of carbon sequestration by planting trees are recognized as untenable due to the fact that most of the carbon as a result of forest fires and the decomposition of organic matter goes back into the atmosphere.

Particular attention is paid to the development of legislative standards aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, many countries around the world have adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1999). The latter has not been ratified by a number of countries that account for the lion's share of CO2 emissions. Thus, the United States accounts for about 40% of all emissions (in Lately Information has appeared that China has overtaken the United States in terms of CO2 emissions). Unfortunately, as long as people put their own well-being first, no progress will be made in solving global warming issues.

The science

Global warming is the long-term, cumulative effect of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily carbon dioxide and methane, affecting the earth's temperature as they accumulate in the atmosphere and trap heat from the sun. This topic has been hotly debated for a long time. Some wonder if this is actually happening and, if so, is it human actions that are to blame? natural phenomena or both?

When we talk about global warming, we don't mean that temperatures this summer are slightly warmer than they were last year. We're talking about climate change, changes that occur in our environment and atmosphere over long periods of time, over decades, not just one season. Climate change affects the hydrology and biology of the planet - everything, including winds, rain and temperature are interconnected. Scientists note that the Earth's climate has a long history of variability, from the lowest temperatures during the Ice Age to very high temperatures. These changes sometimes occurred over several decades, and sometimes stretched over thousands of years. What can we expect from the current climate change?

Scientists who study our climate conditions monitor and measure the changes happening around us. For example, mountain glaciers are significantly smaller than they were 150 years ago, and over the past 100 years, average global temperatures have increased by about 0.8 degrees Celsius. Computer modeling allows scientists to predict what might happen if things continue to happen at the same rate. By the end of the 21st century, average temperatures could rise to 1.1-6.4 degrees Celsius.

In the article below we look at the 10 worst consequences of climate change.

10. Sea level rise

Rising ground temperatures don't mean the Arctic will become as warm as Miami, but it does mean sea levels will rise significantly. How is rising temperature related to rising water levels? High temperatures suggest that glaciers, sea ice and polar ice are beginning to melt, increasing the amount of water in the seas and oceans.

Scientists, for example, were able to measure how meltwater from the Greenland ice cap affects the United States: the amount of water in the Colorado River has increased several times. According to scientists, with the melting of the ice shelves in Greenland and Antarctica, sea levels could rise to 6 meters by 2100. This in turn means that many of Indonesia's tropical islands and most low-lying areas will be flooded.

9. Reducing the number of glaciers

You don't need any special equipment to see that the number of glaciers around the world is declining.

The tundra, which once contained permafrost, is now full of plant life.

The volume of Himalayan glaciers that feed the Ganges River, which provides drinking water to about 500 million people, is shrinking by 37 meters every year.

8. Wave heat

A deadly heat wave that swept through Europe in 2003, killing 35,000 people, may be a harbinger of a trend toward very high temperatures that scientists began tracking in the early 1900s.

Such heat waves began to appear 2-4 times more often, and their number has increased significantly over the past 100 years.

According to forecasts, over the next 40 years, there will be 100 times more of them. Experts believe the prolonged heat wave could mean a future increase in wildfires, the spread of disease and an overall rise in average global temperatures.

7. Storms and floods

Experts use climate models to predict the impact of global warming on rainfall. However, even without modeling it is clear that strong storms have begun to occur much more often: in just 30 years, the number of the strongest (levels 4 and 5) has almost doubled.

Warm waters give hurricanes their strength, and scientists correlate rising temperatures in the oceans and atmosphere with the number of storms. Over the past few years, many European countries and the United States have suffered billions of dollars in losses associated with the aftermath of severe storms and floods.

In the period from 1905 to 2005, there was a steady increase in the number of serious hurricanes: 1905-1930 - 3.5 hurricanes per year; 1931-1994 – 5.1 hurricanes annually; 1995-2005 – 8.4 hurricanes. 2005 saw a record number of storms, and in 2007 the UK suffered its worst flooding in 60 years.

6. Drought

While some parts of the world are suffering from an increase in hurricanes and rising sea levels, other regions are struggling to cope with drought. As global warming worsens, experts estimate that the number of areas affected by drought could increase by at least 66 percent. Drought leads to a rapid reduction in water reserves and a decrease in the quality of agricultural products. This threatens global food production and puts some populations at risk of going hungry.

Today, India, Pakistan and sub-Saharan Africa already have similar experiences, and experts predict an even greater reduction in rainfall in the coming decades. Thus, according to estimates, a very sad picture emerges. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that by 2020, 75-200 million Africans could experience water shortages and the continent's agricultural output could decline by 50 percent.

5. Diseases

Depending on where you live, you may be at risk of contracting certain diseases. However, when was the last time you thought you might get dengue fever?

Increasing temperatures along with an increase in floods and droughts are a threat to the entire world, as they create favorable conditions for the breeding of mosquitoes, ticks and mice and other creatures that carry various diseases. The World Health Organization reports that outbreaks of new diseases are currently on the rise, and in countries where such diseases have never been heard of before. And the most interesting thing is that tropical diseases migrated to countries with cold climates.

Although more than 150,000 people die each year from climate change-related diseases, many other diseases, from heart disease to malaria, are also on the rise. Allergy and asthma diagnoses are also on the rise. How is hay fever related to global warming? Global warming is contributing to an increase in smog, which increases the ranks of asthma sufferers, and weeds are also beginning to grow in large quantities, which are harmful to people suffering from allergies.

4. Economic consequences

The costs of climate change are rising with temperatures. Severe storms and floods, combined with agricultural losses, cause billions of dollars in losses. Extreme weather conditions create extreme financial difficulties. For example, after a record-breaking hurricane in 2005, Louisiana experienced a 15 percent drop in revenue a month after the storm, and property damage was estimated at $135 billion.

Economic issues accompany almost every aspect of our lives. Consumers regularly face rising food and energy prices, along with rising health care and real estate costs. Many governments are suffering from declining tourism and industrial profits, soaring demands for energy, food and water, border tensions and much more.

And ignoring the problem will not allow it to go away. A recent study by the Global Development Institute and the Environment Institute at Tufts University suggests that inaction in the face of global crises will result in $20 trillion in losses by 2100.

3. Conflicts and wars

Decreases in the quantity and quality of food, water and land may be leading causes of increased global security threats, conflicts and wars. American national security experts, analyzing the current conflict in Sudan, suggest that although global warming is not the cause of the crisis, its roots are connected with the consequences of climate change, in particular with the reduction of available natural resources. Conflict in the region comes after two decades of almost no rainfall along with rising temperatures in the nearby Indian Ocean.

Scientists and military analysts alike say climate change and its consequences, such as water and food shortages, pose an immediate threat to the world as environmental crises and violence are closely linked. Countries suffering from water shortages and often losing crops become extremely vulnerable to this kind of “trouble.”

2. Loss of biodiversity

The threat of species loss is rising along with global temperatures. By 2050, humanity risks losing as much as 30 percent of animal and plant species if average temperatures rise by 1.1 to 6.4 degrees Celsius. Such extinction will occur due to habitat loss through desertification, deforestation and ocean warming, as well as a failure to adapt to ongoing climate change.

Wildlife researchers have noted that some more resilient species have migrated to the poles, north or south, in order to "maintain" the habitat they need. It is worth noting that humans are not protected from this threat. Desertification and rising sea levels threaten human habitats. And when plants and animals are “lost” to climate change, human food, fuel and income will also be “lost.”

1. Ecosystem destruction

Changing climate conditions and a sharp increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are a serious test for our ecosystems. This is a threat to fresh water supplies, clean air, fuel supplies and energy resources, food, medicine and other important aspects on which not only our way of life depends, but whether we will live in general.

Evidence shows the impacts of climate change on physical and biological systems, suggesting that no part of the world is immune. Scientists are already seeing coral reefs bleaching and dying due to warming oceans, and the migration of vulnerable plant and animal species to alternative geographic habitats due to rising air and water temperatures and melting glaciers.

Models based on a variety of rising temperatures project scenarios of devastating floods, droughts, wildfires, ocean acidification and the possible collapse of functioning ecosystems, both on land and in water.

Forecasts of famine, war and death paint a completely bleak picture of the future of humanity. Scientists make such predictions not to predict the end of the world, but to help people mitigate or reduce the end of the world. negative impact person, which leads to such consequences. If each of us understands the seriousness of the problem and takes action accordingly, using more energy efficient and sustainable resources and generally adopting a greener lifestyle, then we are sure to have a serious impact on climate change.