fuel and energy complex is a group of industries involved in the extraction and processing of fuel, generation of electricity and its delivery to consumers. In the Russian Federation, almost 30% of the funds allocated by the state for industry are spent on the development of the fuel and energy complex. The fuel and energy complex is connected with other intersectoral complexes. For example, the transport complex transports goods for the fuel and energy complex, MK produces equipment and machinery. The basis of Russia's exports - oil, gas, coal to foreign countries - also come from the fuel and energy complex, they account for 40% of the total export volume in the country.

The fuel and energy complex is divided into:

1) fuel industry (Extraction and processing of coal, oil, gas, shale and peat. Fuel processing occurs at production sites, along freight routes, in areas of fuel consumption.)

2) electric power industry (Electricity production at thermal power plants (CHP, CPP), hydroelectric power stations, nuclear power plants. Electricity transmission via power lines.)

The fuel and energy complex includes oil and gas pipelines that form a single network.

Energy is the foundation of the economy, the basis of all material production, a key element of the country’s life support and the basis of the country’s export base. Electric power industry is one of the most important indicators of the level of development of the economy and the country. The use of energy resources is one of the indicators of the level of development of civilization. Without fuel and electricity, the development of any sector of the economy is impossible.

Energy is one of the factors in the location of the economy, since the fuel and energy complex is located near large energy sources (coal and oil basins), powerful power plants, around which entire industrial regions grow, cities and towns are created, i.e., the fuel and energy complex plays a region-forming role. Technological progress increases the distances over which fuel and electricity are transmitted. This promotes the development of areas poor in their own energy sources and a more rational distribution of the economy.

The role of the electric power industry and the fuel industry that provides it in transferring the entire economy to a modern technical basis was defined in the GOELRO plan in 1920, since all technology was based on the use of electricity. Therefore, the scale, technological level, and pace of development of all sectors of the economy depend on the fuel and energy complex. The introduction of progressive equipment and technologies related to scientific and technological progress into the economy requires the energy supply of workers, i.e., the expenditure of all types of energy per person employed in production.

Russia is the only country in the world that is almost completely provided with its own energy resources, but they are distributed unevenly throughout the country. Over 90% of reserves are in Siberia and the East. Western Siberia produces 70% of oil and gas, 50% of coal, and 75% of energy is consumed in the European part of the country. This is the main economic and geographical problem of the Russian energy sector, since it requires transportation over vast distances.

Tasks for the future development of the fuel and energy complex:

Increased investment

Introduction of new technologies into all sectors of the fuel and energy complex, as well as the creation of energy-saving technologies

Revision of mutual settlements with the CIS countries, since the fuel and energy sector also serves the CIS countries

Use of non-traditional energy sources

Types of energy resources:

1) Fuel (coal, oil, gas, shale, peat).

2) Hydro resources (the power of falling water, ebb and flow).

3) Atomic resources – atomic energy of uranium, radium, thorium.

4) Non-traditional resources (solar, wind, geothermal energy).

From sovereign CIS states:

· Ukraine is provided with coal and partially with oil and gas

· Kazakhstan – coal and oil (Magyshlak Peninsula and Tengiz field)

Azerbaijan – oil and gas

· Turkmenistan – gas and oil

Uzbekistan – gas

In other states there are either no fuel resources at all or there are small deposits (Moldova - none, Georgia - coal, Armenia - hydroelectric power stations, Kyrgyzstan - coal).

FEB – fuel and energy balance.

The development of the economy is associated with the continuous growth of the fuel and energy complex while simultaneously implementing a strict energy saving policy. To take into account the proportions in the extraction of various types of fuel, energy production and their distribution between various consumers, fuel and energy balances are used.

The ratio of the extraction of various types of fuel and energy production (income) and their use in the economy (expense) is called TEB. Since the combustion of 1 kg of fuel produces an unequal amount of fuel, the fuel balance is calculated in units of standard fuel. To compile the fuel and energy balance, all types of fuel are converted to standard fuels. The heat of combustion of 1 kg of coal is determined to be 2000 kcal, and the thermal coefficient = 1. 1 kg - 2 kW/hour of electricity, taking into account the efficiency of power plants.

In the fuel and energy system, from the extraction of mineral resources and the production of electricity at power plants to the consumption of fuel and electricity, the coefficient of useful resource use = 43%. This means that 57% is lost annually at power plants and during transportation. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures aimed at saving fuel and electricity.

Thus, from 50 to 93, TB turned from coal to oil and gas. Since 1990, open-pit gas and coal have become of promising importance. In general, oil and gas currently account for about 70% of all fuel production and use.

FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF RUSSIA: OPPORTUNITIES AND PROSPECTS

The article discusses macroeconomic forecasts for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex until 2030-2040, based on forecasts of the country's economic development (developed at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences), forecast estimates of the economics of production of main types of fuel, Russia's participation in meeting world needs for oil and gas, progress in the development of new energy sources. It is shown that in the considered future, carbon dioxide emissions from fuel and energy complex facilities, in accordance with the expected demand for energy resources and expected changes in the structure and technological base of the fuel and energy complex, will not exceed the 1990 level recorded in the Kyoto Protocol. It is shown that the annual volume of investments in the fuel and energy complex by 2030 should at least double compared to those required in 2000-2010, and by 2040 it should increase by another 15-20%.

The fuel and energy complex (FEC) occupies a much larger share in the structure of the Russian economy than in developed countries. In Russia, the fuel and energy complex not only performs an infrastructural function (supplying energy and fuel), but is also the central complex of the national economy, providing a significant part of the country’s income - two-thirds of export revenues, more than 40% of budget tax revenues and about 30% of GDP. Therefore, increased attention is invariably paid to the prospects for the development of this complex.

External and internal problems of development of the Russian fuel and energy complex. For the coming decades, the main problems and trends in the development of the world energy sector (and the Russian fuel and energy complex as an integral part of this large system) are as follows:

By 2030, global oil production will reach its maximum level after 2020. In this case, we can talk more about an economic phenomenon rather than about the physical depletion of oil resources. As a result of this process, oil prices on the world market will slowly rise. This trend is present in all forecasts for the development of world energy;

Natural gas is taking a leading position in the global fuel and energy balance, which will remain until the middle of the century. Great hopes in many countries are associated with shale gas, although the prospects for its development still remain uncertain;

Global warming and the requirements to preserve the planet's climate can have a strong impact on the structure of energy consumption, reducing the share of carbon-containing fuels (especially coal);

The energy security policy of leading importers of energy resources is already leading to a reduction in imports of energy resources from regions with an unstable political situation, to the diversification of supplies, and to the development of their own energy sources;

There may be restrictions on the development of nuclear energy as a consequence of the accidents at Chernobyl and Fukushima.

To these global ones we should add problems characteristic of the Russian fuel and energy complex, which must be taken into account when developing long-term forecasts. These specific problems include:

The vastness of the country's territory and the uneven distribution of centers of production and consumption of energy resources. This leads to high costs for

delivery of energy resources, which reduces their competitiveness in global and domestic markets;

The continuing decline in the country's population may become a limitation for the development of a number of industries, especially in the eastern regions. The coal industry, the most labor-intensive sector of the fuel and energy complex, may be the first to suffer;

Maintaining a strong dependence of the country's economy on energy exports;

Slow renewal of energy equipment, especially in the electric power industry, where wear and tear reaches 50%, and capital return periods are ten years or more;

A cold climate leads to the need for increased energy consumption for heating and ventilation and places special demands on the building envelope. This is reflected in increased construction and heating costs;

High energy prices (in PPP terms) in comparison with other countries deprive the Russian economy of a competitive advantage in world markets.

In the future until 2030-2040. The basic directions of innovative development of the fuel and energy complex remain:

The use of natural gas due to its higher competitiveness compared to other energy sources;

Development of electrification of the economy based on advanced technologies (gas turbines, nuclear energy and new energy sources);

Energy saving and increasing energy efficiency.

These directions are common to a wide range of scenario options being considered for the next two decades, making development strategies

The fuel and energy complex is largely invariant with respect to the parameters of social

economic development.

Macroeconomic parameters underlying long-term forecasts for the development of the fuel and energy complex. The quantitative estimates below are calculated in relation to two scenarios for the economic development of Russia, considered in the materials of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences: “Inertial development of the Russian economy” (scenario 1) and “Use of Russia’s economic growth potential” (scenario 2). These scenarios reflect various hypotheses of the dynamics of the country's socio-economic development, changes in the structure of production, the effectiveness of energy saving efforts and a number of other macroeconomic parameters that influence the pace and proportions of development of the fuel and energy complex.

Long-term forecasts for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex in the context of three large macro-regions of the country - the European part of the Russian Federation; Ural and Western Siberia;

- carried out using the model complex of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, focused on the selection of the optimal option for the development of the fuel and energy complex according to the criterion of minimum costs for the period under consideration2. The forecasts are based on the following main scenario conditions:

Average annual GDP growth rate in the period 2010-2030. adopted in accordance with the parameters of the two indicated scenarios of the Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS:

The country's population remains stable until 2020, and then begins to grow slowly;

2 Tools for developing forecasts for the development of the fuel and energy complex and the forecasting results were repeatedly described in the works of A. S. Nekrasov and Yu. V. Sinyak, published in the period 2000-2011. (see eg, ). The mathematical model and accompanying modules (databases, output of results, comparison of scenarios) are constantly being improved and refined in connection with the emergence of new requirements for forecasts, the emergence of new technologies and ideas.

The pace of energy saving and increasing the efficiency of the fuel and energy complex in the two scenarios is assumed to be different, based on the premise that with higher rates of economic development, the modernization of the fuel and energy complex will be carried out more intensively. At the same time, an increase in energy efficiency occurs due to two factors: structural changes in the economy and innovative technologies in the field of energy use;

The export of energy resources is given exogenously, based on demand, competitiveness and export profitability. In scenario 2, growing hydrocarbon exports will be a resource for modernizing key sectors of the economy;

There are no restrictions on CO2 emissions.

Expected oil prices on the world energy market as a guideline for forecast calculations. Oil prices on the world market play a decisive role in all long-term economic and energy forecasts. In calculating the long-term prospects for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex, forecasts published by EIA3 in the International Energy Outlook for 2011 were used. According to these forecasts, the world price of crude oil by 2030 could range from 50 to 200 dollars (2009)/barrel. (average estimate: $125(2009)/bbl). Given the likelihood of peak global oil production approaching, we can assume that the long-term trend of rising global oil prices is likely to continue. Therefore, forecasts for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex were made with a focus on the upper price range (125-200 dollars (2009)/barrel with an average value of about 150 dollars/barrel.

Resource availability of the fuel and energy complex. To construct prospective estimates, Russian and foreign publications on organic fuel resources and the cost of their extraction from the subsoil were used. Despite a certain fragmentation of the initial data, this made it possible to get an idea of ​​the possible dynamics of the economic indicators of the production of individual types of fuel and their competitiveness on the Russian market.

All cost estimates are given in modern prices4. In the considered options for the development of the energy complex, the resources of each field were represented by three cost categories that reflect the economics of their extraction: I - cheap, II - moderate cost and III - expensive (see more details).

Oil. Current proven reserves and resources of the distributed subsoil fund in the main oil and gas production areas can provide the current level of crude oil production only in the next 13-15 years. The remaining reserves must be increased at new sites, including in new territories and waters of Russia. This will make it possible to delay the onset of peak oil production in Russia in the considered future until 2030-2040. For the entire period until 2040, the main areas of growth in hydrocarbon reserves will be the West Siberian, Leno-Tunguska and Timan-Pechora oil and gas provinces. Taking into account the geographical distribution of predicted oil and gas resources and the achieved level of geological and geophysical knowledge, it is necessary to ensure an increase in the preparation of hydrocarbon reserves in the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea, on the shelf of the Barents, Kara and Okhotsk Seas. All this will lead to a significant increase in oil production costs.

Great hopes are placed on the development of the resources of the continental shelf of the Arctic seas. Currently, the initial total recoverable hydrocarbon resources of the continental shelf in the world are estimated at approximately 55 billion tons of oil equivalent. (of which 18 billion tons of oil with condensate and 47 trillion cubic meters of gas). Of these, Russia accounts for 7.6 billion tons of oil and 37 trillion. cube m of gas. The development of these resources could delay the onset of peak oil production by 5-10 years at best. The exploration of the initial total hydrocarbon resources of the Russian shelf is insignificant. The cost of extracting these hydrocarbons will be extremely high. It is possible that the costs and environmental consequences of the development of Arctic resources may far exceed the expected effects of their use. In table Table 1 shows aggregated estimates of recoverable oil reserves in Russia and expected costs in accordance with the accepted classification of reserves.

Due to the increasing complexity of oil production processes and associated costs, in the near future it is necessary to begin searching for alternative ways to meet the need for motor fuels. Such alternatives may include synthetic motor fuels produced from coal or natural gas, electricity, and hydrogen, which in the coming years may prove competitive compared to the extraction of natural oil in marginal conditions.

Natural gas. The Russian Federation occupies a leading position in the world in terms of initial total gas resources (ITR), accounting for 248 trillion. cube m (43.2% of the NSR on the planet). Today, proven gas reserves are estimated at 48 trillion. cube m. This means that the degree of exploration of the NSR in the country as a whole does not exceed 25%. Moreover, on land it is 32.6%, and in Eastern Siberia and the Far East - only 6.9 and 10.3%, respectively. The experience of the development of the gas industry of the USSR indicates that the increase in gas reserves should exceed the level of its production by 1.3-1.5 times. Only with such proportions of reproduction of the resource base can we reliably ensure the growth of gas production in Russia until 2040.

The potential of shale gas in Russia has not been assessed, but given its high cost and high labor intensity of production, as well as competition with the available resources of traditional natural gas, it is unlikely that in the future until 2040 it will be able to play a significant role in the country’s energy supply.

3 U.S. Energy Information Administration - US Energy Information Agency.

4 To do this, estimates used in the authors' previously published work were converted to 2010 prices using appropriate deflators for typical energy equipment (see, for example, oil and gas estimates regularly published in the Oil and Gas Journal).

Table 1

Assessment of recoverable oil resources and technical and economic indicators of its production

European part of the Russian Federation

Caspian region I 500 78 78 170

II 1000 155 140 322

III 2000 310 202 552

Komi I 500 78 68 159

II 850 155 140 322

III 1500 310 202 552

Other regions I 400 109 93 220

II 425 217 155 403

III 1000 388 248 685

Ural and Western Siberia

I 2500 47 62 121

II 5000 93 124 242

III 10000 186 248 484

Eastern Siberia and Far East

Sakhalin I 700 124 109 254

II 825 248 171 453

III 2000 372 264 688

Other regions I 500 155 124 304

II 650 310 217 570

III 2000 388 310 760

Total resources - 33120 - - -

ten years at a rate of return on capital of 12% per year.

The development of the Arctic shelf can provide a significant increase in proven reserves, but due to great difficulties and risks, their extraction can become prohibitively expensive. Restoring the environment in this region after the activities of mining companies can also be enormously expensive. All this requires careful consideration and study before moving on to large-scale development of Arctic oil and gas fields.

In table 2 provides estimates of recoverable natural gas resources and economic parameters for their extraction.

Coal. Coal resources in Russia are significant. The main developed coal mining areas are located in Kuzbass and the Kansk-Achinsk basin. Further geological study of the country's coal potential is necessary, especially coking coal reserves: vast areas of the Lena, Tunguska and Taimyr basins, as well as Yakutia and North-East Russia. There are no resource limitations for thermal and coking coals in the foreseeable future. In table 3 provides estimates of coal resources and economic indicators of their production, adopted in forecast calculations.

Uranus. Natural uranium reserves in Russia are estimated at about 660 thousand tons, including explored ones - 280 thousand tons (2009). According to the IAEA (2003), uranium with a production cost of less than $80/kg accounts for only 158 thousand tons. This means that such uranium will be enough for only 40 years to supply currently operating nuclear power plants with light water reactors. In addition, a significant amount of nuclear materials produced in Russia is exported, and the volume of exports is growing from year to year. In the next one or two decades, due to the commissioning of new Russian nuclear power plants and an increase in supplies abroad, a shortage of nuclear fuel may arise. The way out of this situation should be the expansion of geological prospecting work to identify profitable uranium deposits in the country, in particular cooperation with Kazakhstan (proven reserves of uranium 848 thousand tons) and Uzbekistan (proven reserves 119 thousand tons). However, the issue can be fundamentally resolved through the widespread development of fast neutron reactors, for which there are more resources and which consume many times less nuclear fuel, as well as the development of reactors based on the thorium cycle. The development of thermonuclear fusion technology, if it turns out to be real, will have an impact on nuclear energy only beyond the middle of the century.

Renewable energy sources. The feasibility of developing renewable energy sources is determined by a number of geographical, technological and economic factors.

Firstly, the possibilities for the cost-effective use of technologies based on renewable energy sources depend on the local physical conditions of the technology placement (characteristics of the wind cadastre, solar insolation, climatic conditions, etc.5).

5 Traditional technologies are less dependent on local geographical conditions.

table 2

Estimates of recoverable natural gas resources and technical and economic indicators of gas production

European part of the Russian Federation

Caspian region I 1500 14 34 55

and 1575 29 72 114

III 315G 57 100 177

Other regions I 8GG 17 4b 72

and 5425 4G 74 129

III 13875 8b 143 257

Ural and Western Siberia

I 129GG 11 29 4b

and 1715G 23 72 109

III 1275G 51 143 223

Eastern Siberia and Far East

Yakutia I 5GG 29 57 97

and 7GG 43 8b 14b

III 6GG 8b 114 223

Sakhalin I 5GG 29 57 97

and 875 43 8b 14b

III 1125 8b 114 223

Irkutsk region I 1GGG 29 43 80

and 1G75 43 72 129

III 225 8b 100 20b

Other regions I 5GG 43 57 112

and 55G 72 100 192

III 15G 1GG 200 340

Total resources - 7b925 - - -

Sources: , expert assessments.

Secondly, the energy flow density of renewable energy sources is many times less than technologies based on the combustion of fossil fuels or nuclear energy. This determines the need to construct much larger facilities than with traditional technologies in order to obtain the same useful energy output. As a result, the material intensity of technologies based on renewable energy sources will always remain higher. As a result, the energy efficiency6 of these technologies will be significantly lower than traditional ones.

Thirdly, these two factors make renewable energy sources more expensive than traditional ones at present. However, in the future we should expect an increase in the efficiency and competitiveness of new energy sources due to an increase in their efficiency and a reduction in the costs of their production, on the one hand, and an increase in the cost of organic fuels, on the other.

Interest in renewable energy sources is determined to a large extent by lower environmental pollution than when using traditional technologies based on fossil fuels or nuclear energy. Of course, when comparing “clean” and “dirty” technologies, it is necessary to carry out an analysis taking into account the life cycle of technologies (life cycle analysis) and all stages of their production and operation. In the context of current world problems, the highest priority should belong to carbon-free technologies that can mitigate the threat of catastrophic climate change on the planet.

The vast territory of Russia has a variety of renewable energy sources. A cautious estimate of the total potential of this category of energy resources is about 3 billion toe. in year. In table Table 4 shows estimates of various types of renewable energy sources. At the same time, two technologies are additionally included in the resources: photovoltaic converters and power plants using dry heat from the Earth, which can significantly change the picture of the electric power industry in the 21st century, especially if it is necessary to introduce serious restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.

From the approximate data provided (a detailed assessment of the potential of renewable energy sources has never been carried out), the economic potential of all renewable energy sources is several times higher than the country's annual energy demand throughout the 21st century.

6 Energy efficiency is the ratio of energy production over the entire period of operation to the total energy consumption for the creation and operation of the technology during its service life.

Table 3

Estimates of recoverable coal reserves and technical and economic indicators of its production

European part of the Russian Federation

Pechersk basin i 1600 38 13 54

її 1700 77 19 100

iii 4900 115 26 146

Other regions і 1800 64 26 95

її 2600 115 51 177

w 7000 192 77 284

Ural and Western Siberia

Kuznetsy pool i 11000 18 6 26

ii 15000 36 13 51

iii 14700 64 20 89

Other regions і 7700 38 19 61

ii 12000 77 26 108

iii 10500 154 32 192

Eastern Siberia and Far East

Kansk-Achinsk basin i 7000 13 5 19

ii 10500 26 10 38

iii 12200 51 15 70

Other regions і 8200 38 13 54

ii 12200 77 26 108

iii 79600 154 32 192

Total resources - 220200 - - -

Sources: , expert assessments.

Table 4

Estimates of renewable energy resources in Russia, million toe/year

Resource Potential

gross technical economic

Hydropower - - 75

Small hydroelectric power stations 250 90 45

Biomass energy 7x103 35 25

Wind energy 18x103 1400 7

Solar collectors 1.6x106 1610 9

Photoelectric converters* - - 2000

Geothermal heat - - 80

Heat of the Earth** - - 730

Low-grade heat 365 75 22

Total 1.7x106 3210 ~3000

* When using 1% of the territory of Russia with solar insolation of about 1300-1500 kWh/sq. m (panel tilt 35-45°) with device efficiency of 20%.

** Under the cautious assumption that a territory with favorable parameters for the use of deep

Earth's heat (up to 10 km with a rock temperature of about 200-250°C) makes up only 10% of the territory of Russia, and

ground collectors are constructed on 1% of the area of ​​this territory. Useful energy consumption at a power plant,

using the dry heat of the Earth, can reach 100 MW (e)/sq. km, which, when using the installed capacity of 5000 hours/year, provides 500 million. kWh/sq. km.

Most of the renewable energy resources are suitable for generating electrical energy. The potential of renewable energy resources is (billion kWh):

Large hydroelectric power plants 850

Small hydroelectric power plants 755

Wind power plants 115

Solar power plants 23000

Dry heat of the Earth 8500

Total 33220

As can be seen, the potential for generating electricity from renewable energy sources is approximately 30 times greater than the current electricity generation in the country.

It should be taken into account that estimates of renewable energy resources in Russia are very approximate. Currently, due to a significant reduction in the cost of technologies for using renewable energy sources, as well as rising prices for fossil fuels, the economic potential of this category of energy resources may be significantly higher than the indicated values.

Meanwhile, it should be understood that the potential assessment informs only about the possibilities of obtaining energy from the category of energy resources under consideration, but does not guarantee the feasibility of large-scale use of these resources. It is believed that the 21st century. will be a transition from energy based on exhaustible resources of organic fuels to energy based on unlimited resources. The latter includes all types of renewable energy sources.

Export of energy resources. An analysis of the country's economic growth and the progress of structural reforms shows that energy exports will remain at a high level over the long term. Today, oil and natural gas are the main exported energy resources. In 2011, about 237 million tons of crude oil, or 46.5% of its production, and over 130 million tons of petroleum products were sent abroad, which exceeded half of their production volume in the country. Currently, almost 90% of liquid fuel exports are supplied to non-CIS countries, while in the early 1990s more than half of Russian oil and almost 18% of petroleum products went to the CIS countries. In 2011, natural gas supplies from Russia reached 182 billion cubic meters. m and provided 33% of total demand in Europe.

Russia's main partner in energy trade remains the European Union (EU), which consumes about 14% of the world's energy and is the largest net importer of energy resources. According to E1A forecasts, the growth in consumption of primary energy resources in the EU will be about 0.5% annually (with economic growth in EU countries at 1.8% per year). Thus, by 2030, domestic consumption of primary energy resources in the EU will increase by 12% compared to 2008 and reach about 1800 million tons of oil equivalent. in year.

It can be expected that in the period until 2020, Russian oil exports will increase slightly, primarily due to the development of a new export direction to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. During the period 2020-2030. Crude oil production in Russia will reach an almost constant level, which will lead to an inevitable reduction in the export of oil and petroleum products. This trend will become more acute after 2030, when oil production begins to decline due to the depletion of cheap oil resources. Maintaining oil exports at a high level may require the creation in Russia of synthetic oil production based on cheap coal7.

As for natural gas, according to IEA forecasts, demand for it in EU countries may increase from 536 billion cubic meters. m in 2008 to 621 billion cubic meters. m in 2030. Today it is difficult to say whether Russian gas will be able to maintain its share in the European market in the long term. Recently, a number of political and economic factors have emerged that may affect the contours of the development of the western direction of natural gas exports from Russia in the next few decades. The most important of them are:

Europe's desire to diversify the sources and directions of imported supplies of natural gas to improve its own energy security;

Development of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and the emergence of new Russian competitors in the European gas market;

Risks of unreliable natural gas supplies to Europe caused by the “gas conflict” between Russia and Ukraine;

The high costs of production and transportation of Russian gas, due to the remoteness and difficult conditions of developing new gas fields in Russia, limit the price range at which Russian gas remains competitive;

Significant potential for the possible development of shale gas production in Europe.

In the next few years, the threat to Russian positions in the European natural gas market is still small - European consumers have no real alternatives. However, by the end of the current decade, we can expect an increase in gas supply on the European market both from existing competitors (Qatar, North African countries) and due to the entry of new suppliers into the market (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran). Certain opportunities for developing LNG supplies to the European market are also opening up for the United States due to the “boom” in shale gas production, the surplus of which can be sent to European consumers. Russia's position in the European gas market is complicated by the fact that it occupies the position of a trailing supplier. Therefore, the volumes of Russian gas supplies to Europe will be very sensitive to the export capabilities of competing countries offering their gas on more flexible terms, at lower and more flexible spot market prices.5

In this regard, the volume of Russian gas supplies to Europe9 may decrease from 180 billion cubic meters. m in 2010 to 160 billion cubic meters. m in 2030, and if active development of shale gas begins in Europe, the demand for Russian gas could be reduced to 120 billion cubic meters. m. At the same time, Russia’s share in meeting European gas demand will decrease to 20% compared to 33% currently. In 2040, due to a sharp drop in its own production and supplies from South American countries, European demand for Russian gas may exceed 240 billion cubic meters. m. (an option with low gas prices on the Western European market, strong growth in shale gas production in the region and Russia’s position as the final gas supplier to the European market).

The globalization of the world natural gas market has noticeably weakened the infrastructural connection between Europe and Russia, and the spot market is beginning to play an important role. In the changing environment, the only way for Russia to maintain and possibly expand its own niche in the European market is to abandon a rigid strategy in relation to European consumers in favor of a more flexible price

7 This circumstance is not considered in this forecast.

8 For more details, see A.Yu. Kolpakov. “The influence of the European natural gas market on the state of the Russian fuel and energy complex” (master’s thesis, 2012).

Here Europe is the EU countries, as well as the European part of the CIS and Türkiye.

politicians10. If a competent policy is implemented that can ensure the priority of Russian gas supplies to the EU, the volume of Russian gas exports to Europe could increase to 260 billion cubic meters. m by 2030 and up to 310 billion cubic meters. m by 2040. In this case, the share of Russian gas in meeting European demand will rise to 35% (an option with high gas prices, weak development of shale gas production in Europe and Russia’s priority position among competing gas suppliers).

Energy consumption and energy saving. The central task of the long-term development of the country's fuel and energy complex should be solving the problem of energy saving, primarily through the replacement of outdated technologies and equipment. According to available estimates, the technical potential for energy saving is at least 45% of current energy consumption, and the economic potential reaches 75-80% of the technically achievable level. The energy-saving development path requires several times less investment funds than expansion of energy production capacities.

Innovation is the material base that can guarantee the implementation of long-term programs for the development of the fuel and energy complex and ensure a reduction in energy and electricity intensity of the national economy. To a certain extent, increasing energy efficiency will be achieved by changing the structure of the economy, i.e. increasing the share of non-energy-intensive industries and sectors and the decisive contribution of new technical solutions that can slow down the growth of energy consumption in the country, help reduce costs, reduce harmful emissions into the environment and increase labor productivity.

The basis for stimulating energy conservation should be a system of legislative measures, energy-saving standards and energy use standards, comprehensive information about new types of materials, equipment and technologies, motivated consumption of energy and energy-saving products. The state must take control of the country's energy consumption. In the long term, it is necessary to ensure an annual rate of reduction in the energy intensity of GDP of at least 3-4% per year.

Forecasts for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex until 2030-2040. In table Table 5 shows a number of final indicators of the long-term development of the country's fuel and energy complex for the two considered scenarios.

As a result of energy-saving policies, the indices of GDP growth and energy consumption within the country in the period 2010-2040. will differ significantly (Table 6).

This means that by 2030 the energy intensity of GDP should be reduced to 53% (scenario 1) and 44% (scenario 2) of the 2010 level, and by 2040, respectively, to 37% (scenario 1) and 32% (scenario 2). A significant reduction in the energy intensity of the Russian economy must be achieved in both scenarios through significant efforts to improve energy efficiency. Average annual rate of decline in GDP energy intensity in the period 2010-2040. should be at least 3-3.2% per year (scenario 1) and 3.6-3.8% per year (scenario 2).

In light of the forecasts under consideration, fossil fuel remains the predominant energy resource in the structure of production of primary energy resources. By 2040, its share will decrease slightly: from 98% in 2010 to 91-95% by 2040. At the same time, the share of coal in the structure of organic fuel will increase from 12.5 to 21% over the same period. It can be expected that by 2040, about half of recoverable oil resources and about a third of natural gas resources will be produced from the ground. The degree of depletion of coal resources over the same period will not exceed 3% (Table 7).

Model calculations of scenarios for the country’s future fuel and energy balance indicate an increase in the period from 2010 to 2040 in the production costs of the following

blowing organic fuels:

Oil - production cost: from 90 to 235 dollars/t,

specific capital investments: from 990 to 2300 dollars/t, specific costs: from 210 to 510 dollars/t.

Natural gas - production cost: from 17 to 33 dollars/1000 cubic meters. m, specific capital investments: from 415 to 805 dollars/1000 cubic meters. m, unit costs: from 65 to 130 dollars/1000 cubic meters. m.

Coal - production cost: from 35 to 55 dollars/t.e.,

specific capital investments: from 130 to 175 dollars/t.e., specific costs: from 52 to 75 dollars/t.e.

10 This is not about incentive discounts, but about a systematic change in the gas price formula, weakening the influence of the basket of petroleum products, i.e. including a link to other non-oil components and the price of natural gas on the spot market. Flexibility of contracts should provide for shorter terms of contracts, relaxation of mechanisms for revising their basic terms, as well as lowering the limits of minimum mandatory selections.

11 The unit cost estimate is based on a rate of return on capital of 12% per year.

Table 5

Summary indicators of the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex until 2030-2040.

Indicator Scenario 1: Assessment of inertia of economic growth in Russia* Scenario 2: Assessment of economic growth potential**

2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040

Production of primary energy

mineral resources, million tons of oil equivalent*** 1231.9 1291 1335 1336 1231.9 1354 1408 1399

coal 151 155 205 260 151 185 225 265

oil 502 530 540 460 502 530 540 460

natural gas 551 570 540 550 551 600 560 550

nuclear energy 13.3 21 30 40 13.3 23 39 57

hydropower 14.6 15 18 21 14.6 16 22 23

new energy sources - - 2 15 - - 22 44

Export of energy resources,

million toe 580.3 550 532 478 580.3 648 677 633

coal 48.5 63 70 55 48.5 63 65 55

oil 249 260 265 220 249 260 265 220

petroleum products 115 110 75 45 115 110 70 40

natural gas 165 130 115 150 165 210 270 310

electricity 2.8 5 7 8 2.8 5 7 8

Electricity generation,

billion kWh 1038 1200 1355 1390 1038 1345 1820 2585

TPP 699 780 750 650 699 897 785 675

NPP 171 250 370 460 171 270 430 640

HPP 168 170 185 190 168 175 190 190

new energy sources - - 50 90 - 3 415 1080

Installed electric power

power plants, million kW 230 271 270 275 230 270 394 590

TPP 158 155 150 130 158 180 160 135

NPP 24 36 53 65 24 39 61 90

HPP 48 50 53 55 48 50 55 55

new energy sources - - 14 25 - 1 118 310

Heat production in the central heating system,

million Gcal 1355 1405 1445 1500 1355 1440 1590 1565

CHP 650 700 750 850 650 720 845 900

boiler rooms 705 705 695 650 705 720 490 315

heat pumps - - - - - 185 350

Demand for investment (over 10 years)

billion dollars (2010) - 1455 2000 2265 - 1560 2040 2325

CO2 emissions, Gt CO2 1.94 1.90 2.09 2.20 1.94 2.04 1.95 1.92

* Option scenario with unfavorable development of the situation for Russian natural gas in Europe

European market - low prices for natural gas, successful development of shale gas resources, Russia as the final gas supplier to Europe.

** Option scenario with favorable development of the situation on the European gas market for Russian

suppliers - high gas prices, poor development of shale gas production Russia as a priority

gas supplier to Europe.

*** In the calculations of the Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS, carbon-free technologies (nuclear energy, hydropower and energy) are given in terms of the physical equivalent of 1 kWh = 860 kcal. new sources

Table 6

GDP growth indices and energy consumption, times by 2010

GDP scenario Energy consumption

2030 2040 2030 2040

Scenario 1 2.13 3.17 1.15 1.18

Scenario 2 2.93 5.01 1.29 1.56

Table 7

Estimation of volumes of organic fuel extraction on an accrual basis in the period 2010-2040.

Indicator Initial estimate of recoverable resources at the beginning of the period, taken in calculations (rounded) for 2011-2020. 2021-2030 2031-2040 Degree of extraction of available resources for the period 2010-2040, %

Oil, billion tons 33 5.2 5.4 5 47

Natural gas, trillion. cube m 77 6.9-7.1 6.8-7.1 6.7-6.8 26-27

Coal, billion toe 220 1.5-1.7 1.8-2.1 2.3-2.5 2.5-2.9

Such dynamics of the expected increase in costs for the production of organic fuels, while simultaneously reducing costs for new energy sources, will have a restraining effect on the use of traditional technologies based on the combustion of organic fuels after 2020. This will be especially evident in the electric power industry, where by 2040, in scenario 2, the share of new (carbon-free) energy sources in the structure of installed capacity could reach even half.

Below is a brief description of forecasts for the development of individual sectors of the Russian fuel and energy complex.

Industry forecasts for the development of the fuel and energy complex.

Oil production. The role of oil, petroleum products and natural gas as the main sources of foreign exchange earnings will remain until other comparable financial sources appear in the country. Therefore, the central task of Russian hydrocarbon exports should be, at a minimum, to maintain Russian positions in the world market. At the same time, full provision of the country’s domestic needs for hydrocarbons must remain unconditional.

It is necessary to expand the scope of application of modern methods of enhanced oil recovery. To ensure the innovative development of technologies for developing fields with hard-to-recover and unconventional oil and gas reserves, primarily the Bazhenov formation. To achieve this, the structural restructuring of the oil complex must simultaneously proceed in two directions. On the one hand, it is necessary to intensively stimulate geological exploration for sustainable increases in oil and gas reserves in areas with “traditional” levels of production costs in order to restrain the transition to the exploitation of fields in extreme regions of the Arctic. The creation of new technologies for these conditions should ensure prices for extracted hydrocarbons that are adequate to future world prices for oil and gas. This direction needs to be stimulated by increasing government investment in exploration, which can then be offset by the high price of licenses for the development of field sites.

For each field being developed, the state must establish levels of extraction of main and associated hydrocarbons that meet international standards and the amount of fines deducted from the companies' net profits, for example, equal to the market price of lost hydrocarbons. Currently, the oil recovery rate during production is approximately 35%, which is below the global average. Utilization of associated gas and extraction of gas condensate are also below possible values.

In areas of new development of oil and gas resources (primarily Eastern Siberia and the Far East), the organization of production requires development

transport and energy infrastructure. At the same time, along with the traditional pipeline and rail transportation of oil in Russia, sea transportation should also be developed. This will require the formation of new, so-called transport and logistics corridors for oil exports as part of the development of regional competitiveness clusters. The production infrastructure for the development of new regions, primarily the waters of the continental shelf, should include: technologies and equipment for working in Arctic conditions, port infrastructure and specialized fleet, navigation and icebreaking support.

Considering the different quality of oils sent for export, which are then mixed in the export pipe, it is advisable to move to a different scheme for the formation of Russian types of oil exported to European countries. It is necessary to distinguish from the Russian export mixture of crude oils (IEVKO), traded under the Urals brand, high-sulfur Tatar, Bashkir, Udmurt and other oils of similar quality. They should be processed at domestic refineries. Then all exported Russian oil will approximately correspond in quality and export price to the grade of Siberian crude oil (BYUSO), which is traded slightly higher on the world market than Urals. At the same time, it is necessary to provide for a compensation scheme for the shortfall in foreign currency funds, which should be received by regions with sulfurous oils falling out of exports. This will increase the profitability of Russian oil exports.

According to estimates by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, oil production in the country will slowly increase until 2030 and will reach a maximum of 535-545 million tons, then a reduction in oil production is expected to 460-470 million tons by 2040. With an increase in oil production until 2030, its exports will also increase to 255-265 million tons, compared to 249 million tons in 2010, with a subsequent decrease to 220 million tons by 2040.

Oil refining. In Soviet times, oil refining was focused on producing large quantities of low-quality diesel fuel for the needs of agriculture, construction and the army and low-quality gasoline, which was consumed mainly within the country. Fuel oil as a residual product was used in boiler houses and power plants. Part of the fuel oil was exported, where it was processed at foreign refineries to produce additional products.

In recent years, there have been significant changes in the structure of domestic demand for petroleum products. First of all, the demand for diesel fuel within the country has decreased. In connection with the widespread gasification carried out in recent years, fuel oil has been displaced from domestic consumption and directed to export. Meanwhile, the structure of production has remained virtually unchanged. With domestic demand for gasoline almost completely satisfied, a significant part of diesel fuel turned out to be unclaimed within the country and began to be exported. At the same time, the quality of petroleum products remained quite low, since there were no significant changes in oil refining technology. As a result, the refining depth remains low (72% in recent years), and the Nelson index in the country as a whole does not exceed 4, compared to 9-12 in developed countries and large oil companies.

In this regard, the main task of the development of oil refining is its modernization based on innovative technologies in order to reach the world level in terms of the Nelson index and refining depth. This will reduce domestic consumption of crude oil while meeting domestic demand for petroleum products and expand opportunities for the export of crude oil during the period when the global oil industry reaches maximum production.

As for the export of petroleum products, the proposed forecast adopts the concept of a slow reduction. Most likely, due to the expected peak in oil production and its transition to the stage of reduction, there is no need to take decisive steps to increase oil refining capacity in the country in order to increase the export of petroleum products.

In Russian oil refining, a state program for the implementation of technical regulations, introduced in 2007, but postponed due to the economic crisis, should be implemented. At the same time, as a result of increasing the depth of processing, the volumes of exported fuel oil will decrease, which will reduce foreign exchange earnings from the sale of this product. Therefore, first of all, when modernizing oil refining, it is necessary to provide for the improvement of installations that improve the quality of diesel fuel exported in large volumes. Technology restructuring is quite possible for vertically integrated oil companies with high income levels. Eliminating financial losses of Russian hydrocarbon suppliers on the world market is extremely necessary both because of the high volatility of export prices and the clearly visible contraction of the global motor fuel market.

In the perspective of the expected peak in oil production, we should begin to search for optimal alternatives for Russia to replace motor fuels obtained from crude oil. The world is actively preparing for a change in the energy supply of road transport, and Russia must determine its priorities here. The attached forecasts take into account the entry of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles into the Russian automobile market.

According to estimates by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, domestic demand for crude oil will increase from 248 million tons in 2010 to 265-270 million tons in 2030, with a subsequent reduction to 225-235 million tons by 2040 in both scenarios. At the same time, the depth of oil refining will increase to 90-93%. Exports of petroleum products will decline from 115 million tons (2010) to 65-75 million tons in 2030.

Gas industry. The accumulated reserves of natural gas are generally sufficient for use both within the country and for export until 2040. At the same time, the development of fields in the north of the Tyumen region (Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, Kara Sea, etc.) requires long development periods and high capital investments and operating costs compared to more southern fields. Therefore, here it is economically feasible to develop only unique and very large deposits. This requires an economic revaluation of gas reserves in the northern regions. All of them are focused on gas supplies to the west. Gas reserves in the Far East fully satisfy the demand of this region for a long period and the possible volume of exports.

Particular attention should be paid to the unique gas fields of Eastern Siberia, which do not have access to markets due to their remoteness. The gas from these fields contains huge reserves of ethane and the entire chain of unsaturated hydrocarbons. On this basis, powerful polymer chemistry production facilities can be created for the needs of the country and large-scale exports. But so far there has been no development of these deposits, with the exception of meeting small local demand. A serious problem is the presence of helium in natural gas, which is a promising product for innovative technologies and other purposes. On this issue, a special program for the exploration and development of helium-containing deposits in Eastern Siberia should be adopted.

According to available estimates, demand on world markets for Russian natural gas may increase by 2.4-2.6 times by 2030 compared to 2010 (see, for example,), although these forecasts look too optimistic. According to estimates by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, supplies of Russian gas to Europe may increase by 25-30%, taking into account the reduction

stabilization of supplies through the Ukrainian gas transportation system and construction bypassing its two gas flows - Nord Stream through the Baltic Sea and South Stream through the Black Sea and the Balkan Peninsula.

The desire to maximize the use of gas resource potential to increase its exports is inappropriate even at extremely high prices on the world market. This could lead to a noticeable increase in prices on the domestic market and a decrease in rent payments due to the need to develop expensive deposits. This requires an in-depth analysis of the current situation.

According to calculations by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, natural gas production in the country, taking into account the expected increase in costs and expected demand in foreign markets, most likely may increase slightly: from 651 billion cubic meters. m in 2010 to 660-670 billion cubic meters. m in 2030 and remain approximately at this level over the next decade.

Coal industry. The development of the coal industry is possible in two significantly different directions, depending on the decisions made by the state and society: 1) using huge reserves of open-pit thermal coal to develop the fuel base of the electric power industry, or 2) focusing on strict environmental requirements to reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases while reducing coal mining in the near future.

In both options, the supply of metallurgy with coals for coking is maintained due to the main today Kuznetsk and Pechersk coal basins, mainly with underground mining of such coals. At the stage of development, but delayed by the crisis, there are two very large coal deposits with high-quality coals for coking in the Republic of Tyva and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The construction of railways with a length of several hundred kilometers in each case is envisaged. The commissioning of these deposits will satisfy the future demand of the domestic metallurgy, will increase the export of high-quality coal and at the same time solve the strategic tasks of connecting the Republic of Tyva with the country's railway network. This will make it possible to begin the development of a number of polymetallic and other deposits in the area where the road passes, as well as partially load the BAM with the transportation of coal.

According to calculations by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in the absence of state policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, coal production in the country will increase from 151 million tons of oil equivalent. (322 million tons of coal) in 2010 to 205-225 million tons of oil equivalent. (400-450 million tons of coal) by 2030 with further growth to 260-265 million tons of oil equivalent. (520-530 million tons) by 2040. At the same time, about 35-37 million tons of oil equivalent will be produced in the European part of the Russian Federation. coal (Pechora, Donetsk basin, etc.), in the Urals and Western Siberia region - 110-115 million tons of oil equivalent. (Kuzbass) and in the region of Eastern Siberia and the Far East - 65-80 million tons of oil equivalent. (Kansk-Achinsk basin, Yakut coals, etc.). Possible coal exports are estimated at 65-70 million tons of oil equivalent. in 2030 and 50-60 million tons of oil equivalent. in 2040

Electric power industry. Electric power industry is the most complex object of the fuel and energy complex. As a result of the reform of RAO UES, hopes for the arrival of investors were not justified, so electricity prices did not decrease: moreover, they are now already 1.5-3 times higher than in developed countries, in PPP terms. Instead of a single industry management body, hundreds of independent business entities appeared, focused on obtaining maximum profits with minimal responsibility to electricity consumers. A high degree of monopolization of electricity supply has remained. The fragmentation of electricity generating companies does not allow them to concentrate sufficient funds for the modernization and development of production. This has become the main reason for the low investment attractiveness and high costs in the industry.

The reform of the electric power industry has not justified itself: neither an electricity market with competing participants nor an efficient industry have been created. The consequences of the structural restructuring of the electric power industry have not been assessed.

Modern Russian electric power industry is characterized by rapid obsolescence of generating and network equipment, small commissioning of new electric power capacities, which does not ensure the required scale of their disposal, large losses of electricity, low reliability of power supply, as well as insufficient investment financing. As a result, approximately a fifth of all produced electricity is spent on internal needs and losses, there are numerous refusals in a number of regions to connect new consumers due to a lack of free capacity, and companies do not have sufficient funds to develop capacity. The underdevelopment of state regulatory and economic levers for managing the electric power industry allows private electric power companies to use various pretexts to reduce their mandatory investment programs and not carry out energy conservation.

The basis of the electric power industry is thermal power plants (70% by capacity), of which 60% run on natural gas (in the European part of the Russian Federation - up to 90%). Progress in thermal generation is associated with the use of gas turbines at combined-cycle power plants, which have higher efficiencies with a construction period of about three years. Today, the construction of new coal power plants has almost completely stopped, especially in the eastern regions, which have sufficient reserves of cheap coal.

The bulk of electricity consumers are located in the European part of the country, which does not have sufficient energy resources to supply them. In the forecast scenario for the development of coal energy, the increase in electricity consumption is achieved either through the transport of coal from Siberian deposits for new thermal power plants (TPPs), or through the transfer of electricity from TPPs located in Siberia near coal and water sources.

Options for rail transportation of coal for new power plants will require either expanding capacity and modernizing existing railways in the east-west direction, or constructing a special coal railway. It seems that in terms of the volume and timing of all work and economic indicators, the option of a coal road will be ineffective.

Another possible solution to the problem of power supply to the European part of the country with the coal development option would be the placement of power plants along the western bank of the river. Yenisei using cheap brown coal from the Kansk-Achinsk basin. Electricity supply to European consumers from these high-capacity thermal power plants can be carried out, according to a number of energy organizations, through high-capacity power transmission lines. In terms of deadlines, cost indicators, energy and economic efficiency, this option seems preferable. At the same time, the possibility of ensuring the development of high-power boilers and equipment for long-distance high-capacity power lines remains problematic due to the long-term break in demand for this equipment and the loss of the production and construction base.

The economic potential of hydropower is almost completely exhausted in the European part of the country, absent in the Urals, and relatively small in Western Siberia. In Eastern Siberia and the Far East, possible large hydroelectric power plants with good economic indicators are extremely remote from areas of promising demand, which makes them economically problematic.

In the nuclear energy industry, the rapid development of which would make it possible to resolve many issues regarding the future power supply of the European and Ural regions, the weak machine-building base actually does not allow the commissioning of more than one or two nuclear power units per year, with the desired increase in commissioning to three or four units or more. At the same time, a significant part of the production and construction capacities is occupied with the fulfillment of foreign orders.

The selection of new construction sites for nuclear power plants is difficult. The negative attitude of the population toward nuclear power plants forced the construction of new nuclear power plants on the sites of existing nuclear power plants that had reached the end of their possible extension periods. On the one hand, this reduces the cost of constructing nuclear power plants through the use of the created industrial and social infrastructure and power lines. But on the other hand, it does not allow the construction of new nuclear power plants in accordance with the new placement of electrical loads, which creates additional loads in electrical networks, requires their development, and leads to an excessive concentration of nuclear power in one place.

Small nuclear power plants (unit capacity up to 30-40 MW) will be able to find application on a limited scale in remote areas with expensive imported fuel. But today the proposed cost of such stations is not economically justified, and without government support the corresponding projects cannot be implemented.

It is necessary to develop a reasonable strategy for the development of nuclear energy in Russia, since all previous ones have not been implemented. It should also be clarified what type of reactors: traditional water-cooled or fast neutron reactors will be developed in the future. The appearance of the first thermonuclear power plants lies beyond the forecast period.

According to experts, the construction of new nuclear power plants is advisable only if their cost is no more than $2,500/kW and the construction period is less than five years. Deviation from these parameters will reduce the possible commissioning of new nuclear power plants.

Reducing the unit capacity of gas-fired generating equipment provides a number of new energy and economic effects, but so far there are no generalized estimates of the possible scale of widespread use of dispersed energy-generating capacities among consumers and changes in production infrastructure.

The destruction of the energy repair base and the inability of the Russian power engineering industry to ensure the replacement of retired equipment and the commissioning of new capacities have formed a new growing orientation for the Russian electric power industry towards foreign companies with their expensive after-sales service.

The country's grid electricity sector, which remained in the hands of the state after the reform of the electric power industry, has not yet been properly developed. Electric networks built in Soviet times under the conditions of a planned economy, with the configuration of electrical flows designed for centralized management, cannot provide economical transport of electricity in market conditions. This leads to an increase in electricity losses. The Federal Grid Company must have sufficient financial resources for the restructuring and development of networks with voltages of 110 kV and higher. It is necessary to ensure connections between the three parts of the Unified Energy System of Russia that operate in isolation: the power system of the European part and the Urals, the power system of Siberia and the power system of the Far East. This connection can provide a significant energy and economic effect, as it will allow for the reservation of electrical capacities and thereby reduce the severity of their current shortage. A number of United Generating Companies and Thermal Generating Companies do not fulfill their investment obligations.

regulations that hinder the development of the country's economy. In such cases, an effective step would be the consistent return to state control of the country's largest thermal power plants, which are the supporting capacities in the formation and development of the Unified Energy System of Russia and the entire electric power industry of the country. Without such a maneuver, it is impossible to reliably develop and rebuild the country’s economy due to the possible emergence of deep imbalances both in the Unified Energy System of Russia itself and in the territorial growth of consumer demand.

Many of the above issues are reflected in the program for modernization of the electric power industry until 2030 being developed by the Russian Ministry of Energy.

According to calculations by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, electricity generation in the country should increase from 1038 billion kWh in 2010 to 1355 billion kWh (Scenario 1) and 1820 billion kWh (Scenario 2) in 2030, and installed capacities - from 230 million kW to 270 million kW (Scenario 1) and 395 million kW (Scenario 2). By 2040, production may increase to 13,902,585 billion kWh, and the installed capacity of power plants - to 275-590 million kW.

Heat supply. The problem with the country's heat supply is already recognized at the state level, but a new paradigm for the development of heat supply is not being developed, and preference is given to the path that has already been laid long ago. The main sources of heat supply remain boiler houses and combined heat and power plants in district heating systems (DHS). The remaining sources for the volume of heat supply (nuclear power plants, electric boilers, recycling of industrial thermal waste, geothermal) are insignificant. Consumers are supplied with heat for the most part from central heating systems, but in recent years there has been a tendency to move towards decentralized heat supply, the share of which has reached, according to our estimates, 25-30% of the total volume of heat production in the Russian Federation. The development of this method of heat supply is associated both with the growth of individual housing construction, which meets the modern level of comfort, and with the desire to get rid of high heat tariffs in central heating systems and huge losses in heating networks.

If properly applied, the principle of combined heat and power generation (cogeneration), which can provide higher efficiency compared to separate power generation, will retain its advantages in energy consumption centers with high thermal load densities at rising energy prices, especially in coal-fired power generation. power plants. It is necessary to clearly define areas for the effective use of district heating. In areas with medium and low loads, energy supply systems based on mini- and micro-CHPs with gas turbine units or gas piston engines should be developed.

Elimination of heat losses in heating mains, associated with the replacement of pipelines with new ones made from modern materials using effective methods for laying and replacing pipelines, should become a priority task in central heating systems. However, today this is not yet financially accessible for the vast majority of heat supply companies. At the same time, the increase in pipeline wear and heat loss has become critical. In a number of settlements, heat losses in heating mains reach 30% or more12. The population has to pay for these losses.

In heating supply there cannot be a single solution for all cases. The necessary structural restructuring should be carried out in relation to specific real conditions, which are essentially individual for each locality. Of all the sectors of the fuel and energy complex, it is heat supply that needs structural restructuring in the first place.

12 According to some estimates, in some cases, heat losses from thermal power plants to consumers amount to more than 50%.

According to estimates by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the demand for heat in centralized heat supply systems by reducing heat losses in buildings (by 30% every ten years) and reducing losses during heat transport to consumers by up to 10% may practically remain below the current level. It is expected that by 2030, heat production in central district heating systems, subject to an active policy of energy saving and reduction of heat losses in networks, could amount to about 1445-1520 million Gcal compared to 1369 million Gcal in 2010. By 2040, it could reach 1500 -1565 million Gcal. Carrying out a reasonable policy in the field of heating development will allow increasing heat production at thermal power plants of all types while reducing output from boiler houses. After 2030, heat pumps should play an active role in heat supply to consumers, the share of which in 2040 could reach 20% or more in the total heat production in central district heating systems.

New energy sources and technologies. Technologies for the use of renewable energy sources, except for large hydroelectric power plants, currently have high specific capital investments and high costs of electricity. In 2010, their share in the country's energy balance did not exceed 1.5%. In the future, it is predicted to increase to 3-4%. Available estimates of economic efficiency and high rates of development of renewable energy sources abroad indicate in favor of the development and implementation of new energy production technologies for industrial use.

Progress in the use of new energy sources will be determined by two factors: 1) the rate of reduction in the cost of new energy sources and the cost of duplicate capacity in energy systems; 2) active government support in the event of adoption of restrictions on CO2 emissions.

Against this background, the greatest interest for Russia in the future will be:

Use of organic waste from industry, agriculture and municipal services, including biogas;

Solar photovoltaic converters of a new generation of film type with an efficiency of more than 20%;

Heat pumps operating on low-grade heat from reservoirs, rivers, seas (for large consumers supplied with heat from central heating systems) and ground heat (for individual consumers);

Wind energy is predominantly in areas cut off from centralized power supply systems;

Deep heat of the Earth, subject to the development of new cheap technologies for drilling deep wells;

Other “breakthrough” technologies that are still undergoing laboratory tests, but in the next one or two decades can have a significant impact on the efficiency of energy generation.

Carbon dioxide emissions. The proposed trajectory for the development of the country's fuel and energy balance in the period up to 2040, even without the use of special measures to limit emissions, ensures that CO2 emissions remain below the 1990 level recorded in the Kyoto Protocol throughout the entire period. At the same time, a slight increase will be observed until 2030 with a subsequent reduction by 2040 to a level 10-20% below 1990. The expected carbon intensity of GDP (the ratio of CO2 emissions from fuel and energy complex facilities to the volume of GDP) is reduced by 2.7-4 .7 times compared to 2000

Meanwhile, if international agreements are adopted to reduce carbon dioxide emissions after the Kyoto Protocol expires and to limit the rise in global temperature to no more than 2°C by 2050, then special measures will have to be introduced.

social restrictions on CO2 emissions, which will require radical changes in the structure of the country's fuel and energy balance towards an increase in the share of carbon-free types of energy.

Investments. Estimates of the expected demand for investment in the fuel and energy complex over ten-year periods (see Table 5) show that by 2030 annual investments should at least double compared to the required capital investments in the period 2000-2010, and by 2040 .increase by another 15-20%. At the same time, the structure of investments should provide for accelerated growth of investments in electricity and heat power. The share of this sector in total investments in the fuel and energy complex should increase by more than 2 times: from 13% in the period 2000-2010. up to 27% by 2040. Accordingly, we should expect some relative reduction in investment demand in the fuel-extracting industries, where investments in the oil and gas industry will predominate, with an insignificant amount of capital expenditure in the coal industry, despite its noticeable growth.

The forecasts considered correspond to “moderate” ideas about the external and internal conditions for the development of the country’s fuel and energy complex. Meanwhile, with a certain degree of probability, a number of situations can be assumed that could radically change the expected pace and proportions of development of the fuel and energy complex. Such situations include:

1) the onset of peak global oil production;

2) introduction of restrictions on CO2 emissions;

3) a departure from the principles of centralization in energy supply and an intensive transition to decentralized (dispersed) electricity and heat supply schemes;

4) the appearance on the market of fundamentally new energy technologies, such as LENR - Low Energy Nuclear Reactions13, the deep heat of the Earth, space energy and other methods of generating energy that seem exotic today.

Literature

1. Ivanter V.V., Ksenofontov M.Yu. The concept of a constructive forecast for the growth of the Russian economy in the long term // Problems of forecasting. 2012. No. 6.

2. Nekrasov A.S., Sinyak Yu.V. Forecast estimates of the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex until 2030 (Scenario approach). INPRAN. M., 2007.

3. U.S. Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011.

4. Nekrasov A.S., Sinyak Yu.V. Problems and prospects for the development of Russian energy on the threshold of the 20th century // Problems of forecasting. 2004. No. 4.

5. USGS. Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/fs2008-3049.pdf (08/21/2012)

6. Subsoil of Russia. T. 1. Minerals. St. Petersburg Mining Institute (Technical University). SPb.-M., 2001.

7. USGS. World Petroleum Assessment 2000.

8. Masters C. D., Root D. H., Turner R. M. World Resource Statistics for Electronic Assess. USGS. 1997.

9. BP Energy Statistics. 2002.

10. Potential of renewable energy sources in Russia. Existing technologies. Analytical review. Russian-European Technology Center. 2002.

11. International Energy Agency. "World Energy Outlook 2011. Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas?"

12. Energy efficiency in Russia: a hidden reserve. World Bank. Electronic resource Access mode. http://www.cenef.ru/file/FINAL_EE_report_rus.pdf (21.08.2012)

13. Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Scenario conditions for a long-term forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2030. Moscow, April 2012 Access mode. http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/macro/prognoz/doc20120428_0010 (08/21/2012)

13 Low temperature nuclear reactions.

Currently, the fuel and energy complex is one of the most sustainable production complexes of the Russian economy. It has a decisive influence on the state and prospects for the development of the national economy: it accounts for about 30% of Russia's industrial production, 32% of consolidated budget revenues and 54% of federal budget revenues, 54% of exports, and about 45% of foreign exchange earnings.

At the same time, in the fuel and energy sector, and especially in the electric power and gas industries, mechanisms and operating conditions remain that are not adequate to the principles of a market economy; there are a number of factors that negatively affect the functioning and development of the fuel and energy complex.

The main factors constraining the development of the complex are: Report on the Russian Economy No. 22 The uneven nature of economic recovery // Economic Policy. - 2010. - No. 4. - P. 5-39.

High degree of depreciation of fixed assets: to date, this figure has exceeded 50% (and in oil refining - 80%);

The difficult financial situation of production structures of the fuel and energy complex (with the exception of oil companies, where, due to rising prices on the world market, the situation has improved) due to insufficient economic efficiency of production, high tax burden, and shortcomings in pricing policy in the state-regulated sphere;

Continued shortage of investment resources in all sectors of the complex. In recent years, this situation has improved somewhat in the oil industry due to favorable world price conditions. Fuel and energy complex enterprises in most cases do not have sufficient own funds not only for expanded, but even for simple reproduction;

Deformation of price relationships for interchangeable energy resources, which led to a structure of demand for fuel and energy resources characterized by an excessive focus on gas and a decrease in the share of coal. As a consequence, a threat to energy security arose due to insufficient diversification of the structure of the fuel and energy balance;

The production potential of the fuel and energy complex lags behind the world scientific and technical level. The share of oil production due to modern methods of stimulation of the reservoir and the share of oil refining products obtained through processes that improve product quality are very low. Energy equipment used in the gas and electric power industries is uneconomical. There are practically no advanced combined cycle gas plants in the country, installations for purifying exhaust gases from sulfur oxides, very little use of non-traditional renewable energy sources is used, the equipment of the coal industry is outdated and technically backward. All this reduces the economic indicators of energy production and increases the anthropogenic load on the environment;

Increased costs for the development of a promising raw material base for hydrocarbon production and especially the gas industry;

Lack of market infrastructure and a civilized, competitive energy market. Economic and production structures require further market reform in the direction of increasing real competition. The necessary transparency of the economic activities of natural monopolies is not ensured, which negatively affects the quality of state regulation of their activities in the market of goods and services and the development of competition in this area;

High energy intensity of the economy, 3-4 times higher than the specific energy intensity of the economies of developed countries. The basis for this situation is the heavy energy-intensive structure of industrial production that had formed even before the start of the economic reform and the growing technological backwardness of energy-intensive industries;

Continued high load on the environment from fuel and energy activities. Despite the decline in extraction and production of fuel and energy resources, the negative impact of the fuel and energy complex on the environment remains high and its share remains approximately at the current level;

High dependence of the oil and gas sector and the coal industry of Russia and, as a consequence, state revenues on the state and conditions of the global energy market;

High breakdown rate of equipment due to aging of fixed assets, lack of incentives and low production discipline of personnel, and management deficiencies. In this regard, the possibility of emergencies in the fuel and energy complex increases.

Foreign investment plays an important role in the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex. "Russia's energy strategy for the period until 2020" predicts the need for investment in the Russian fuel and energy complex in the next 20 years at a level of from 660 to 770-810 billion dollars, or from 33 to 38-40 billion dollars per year. In 2007, investments in fixed capital of the Russian fuel and energy complex were estimated at 11 billion dollars, which is 30-35% of the needs.

In accordance with the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period until 2020, the projected levels of investment needs of the fuel and energy complex are:

In the gas industry - from 170 to 200 billion dollars, including 35 billion for the implementation of the program for the development of gas resources in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, up to 70 billion for ongoing programs for the development of fields on the Yamal Peninsula;

In the oil complex - about 230-240 billion dollars. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 12, 2009 No. 537 “National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020”

In the context of worsening political and social tensions in Africa and the Middle East (Libya, Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Algeria), the risks of implementing investment projects of oil companies in these countries have increased significantly. A number of companies withdrew their specialists from the territory of Libya: many objects of foreign investment in Libya were attacked, property was damaged, foreign specialists (among them the wounded) are leaving the country en masse. In addition, there is a danger of the spread of revolutionary sentiments to other countries of the Middle East and Asia, and the threat of military conflicts within them and with neighboring states.

According to INFOLine analysts, the consequences of these events for Russian companies will develop in two directions:

· Companies implementing projects in the Middle East and Africa will incur costs associated with protecting property, disrupting trade and economic ties and attracting investments necessary for projects from developed countries. Rising energy prices are holding back the pace of economic recovery in the European Union; recessionary trends are likely to intensify in the south of the eurozone. The companies OMV (Austria), Wintershall and RWE (Germany), Eni (Italy), BP (UK), Total (France), CNPC (China) and others suspended the implementation of their projects in Libya, JSC Gazprom Neft planned to purchase from EniSpA 33.33% in the Elephant project worth $178 million, but all agreements of OJSC Gazprom on projects in Libya can be broken or revised by the Libyan authorities unilaterally.

· Companies that previously abandoned low-profit oil production projects in Russia may return to their implementation due to the high growth rate of oil prices. The possible rise to power in the Middle East of radical Islamist political groups or military leaders, instability of political power could lead to civil wars, a surge in terrorism, which would keep oil prices high for a long period; with a relatively quick (within 2-4 years) stabilization of the situation, complex projects with a field commissioning period of 5-7 years will retain a high degree of marketing risk.www.oilru.com

As INFOLine analysts note, the countries that are most attractive for investment in the oil or gas industry due to their leadership in reserves of fuel natural resources (the Middle East contains 56.6% of the world's proven oil reserves, Africa - 9.6%) have demonstrated a critically high investment risk . Russia's oil reserves are estimated at 5.6% of the world's (excluding the reserves of the Middle East and Africa, they account for more than 16% of the world's reserves). In a situation of uncertainty, investors are more interested in investing in Russia than in implementing projects with a risk to the security of property and return on investment in countries characterized by growing political and social instability.

Thus, the problem of attracting foreign investment is an important area for the development of wind farms in the fuel and energy sector of Russia.

To implement all industry development measures, only the own funds of fuel and energy enterprises and government funding are not enough. Attracting foreign investment into the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Federation and improving the investment climate is of great importance.

In general, the prospects for foreign economic relations in the Russian fuel and energy complex will depend on the rationality and effectiveness of state policy in this area, increasing the level of reproduction of the resource base, improving internal energy efficiency indicators, attracting investment in the industry and the general stability of global energy markets.

MAIN PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF THE FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF RUSSIA

Danilina Marina Viktorovna 1, Shershkina Veronika Nikolaevna 1
1 Federal State Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics and Informatics

annotation
This article is devoted to an overview of the main problems of the fuel and energy complex and directions of its development. This issue is multifaceted. The study allows us to assert that Russia has sufficient potential to cope with the difficulties that have arisen. Among the promising areas are investments in the development of new fields and the development of a more flexible pricing policy.

MAIN PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES OF THE FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OF RUSSIA

Danilina Marina Victorovna 1, Shershkina Veronika Nikolaevna 1
1 Moscow State University of economics, statistics and informatics

Abstract
This article reviews the main problems of the fuel and energy complex, the directions of its development. This perspective is multifaceted. The study suggests that Russia has enough potential to cope with difficulties. Among the promising areas - investments in new oil and gas fields, the development of more flexible pricing policy.

Bibliographic link to the article:
Danilina M.V., Shershkina V.N. Main problems and prospects of the Russian fuel and energy complex // Humanitarian Research. 2014. No. 11 [Electronic resource]..03.2019).

The fuel and energy complex (FEC) is one of the most important intersectoral complexes of any country. The fuel and energy complex is a set of closely interrelated sectors of the electric power and fuel industries. It is on the basis of close interdependence that they are grouped into a single complex. This also often includes specialized types of transport and transportation systems - pipelines and main high-voltage lines.

In Russia, the fuel and energy complex is a leading inter-industry complex, which is a distinctive feature of our country compared to other developed countries. A significant difference is that the fuel and energy complex performs not only the functions of supplying the country with fuel and electricity, but also is the basis for the national economy, providing the bulk of foreign exchange earnings. Thus, according to data for 2013, the Russian fuel and energy complex provided 30% of Russia’s total GDP, more than 40% of budget tax revenues, and also took first place in exports - 70% of total exports. All this explains the increased attention to the development prospects of this complex.

Researchers usually identify a certain number of problems characteristic of both the Russian fuel and energy complex and the global energy complex. Of course, when developing a strategy for the development of the fuel and energy complex of our country, it will be necessary to take into account a number of problems outlined below.

Firstly, global problems include the rise of natural gas to a leading position in the world in terms of demand, which, according to experts, should remain until the middle of the century. Also, a slow but relatively stable increase in oil prices is predicted due to global oil production reaching its maximum level by 2030. It must be taken into account that this does not mean the physical depletion of available oil resources, but rather the economic phenomenon in connection with the production of a limited amount of oil per unit of time.

Secondly, it is possible to reduce the share of carbon-containing fuels (especially coal) in consumed energy resources due to environmental problems and global warming. This also includes potential restrictions on the development of nuclear energy after the tragic events in Fukushima and Chernobyl.

Thirdly, the current policy of leading importers of energy resources has recently been aimed at ensuring security and continuity of supplies, which leads to a reduction in purchases from regions with an unstable geopolitical situation. Also, many countries are relying on diversifying supplies of raw materials and developing their own energy sources.

As for the problems directly characteristic of Russia, first of all we should include the traditional problem - the vastness of the territory of our country. This leads to high costs for transporting energy resources to refineries or end consumers, making prices less competitive.

In addition, the shortage of labor due to the continuing decline in the country's working-age population can become a serious limitation for the development of a number of industries. This is especially typical for the eastern regions of Russia, rich in various energy resources.

Another geographic problem for the development of the fuel and energy complex in Russia is the cold climate, especially characteristic of areas rich in natural resources. This also affects the costs of providing the energy complex with everything necessary for its normal functioning, which in turn again increases the cost of the final product.

Purely economic problems include the strong dependence of the country’s economy on the export of energy resources, as well as a lack of budget for the modernization of energy equipment. This is especially noticeable in electrical equipment, where wear and tear reaches 50%, and the return period for capital is ten years or more.

Taking these factors into account, in the 2030-2040 period, the basic directions of development of the fuel and energy complex are:

• Increasing the use of natural gas among other energy resources due to its greater competitiveness.
• Development of advanced electrification technologies (for example, the use of new energy sources, including renewable or gas turbines).
• Improving energy efficiency and saving energy.

Typically, the prospects for the development of the fuel and energy complex in Russia are given in relation to various development scenarios for the country as a whole and to some specific socio-economic parameters, but since this article is a review, it will consider the prospects in a generalized form. Unfortunately, a more detailed analysis of the problem is beyond the scope of this article.

Thus, forecasts for the development of the fuel and energy complex are usually considered in accordance with the research of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. They contain information on two main scenarios for the economic development of Russia – inertial development and development using the potential of economic growth. It should be noted that the development of the fuel and energy complex directly depends on the overall economic development of our country, from which it follows that in the second scenario the fuel and energy complex will develop more intensively. In addition, an important assumption is the fact that restrictions on CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere will not be introduced in the near future.

So, many sectors of the Russian fuel and energy complex are closely tied to the export of resources, which, subject to constantly growing consumption, leads to an increase in the required volumes of mineral extraction. For example, currently explored oil and gas reserves can provide the current level of raw material production only in the next 13-15 years. The remaining reserves must be extracted from new sites, which means significant investment in the exploration and development of new deposits is required. Fortunately, some regions of Russia have very rich mineral deposits, but they are often located in places that are expensive to mine, which in turn can affect the prices of the final product and reduce its competitiveness. Examples of such regions are the shelves of the Okhotsk, Caspian and Barents Seas, as well as the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea. In connection with these factors, a reasonable solution is to search for alternative ways to obtain motor fuel - for example, the development of new synthetic fuels based on other resources (hydrogen, electricity, gas, etc.).

It is also worth noting that, given Russia’s leading position in the world in terms of total gas resources, the degree of exploration of its deposits currently does not exceed 25%. This leaves quite a large potential for growth in the production of this type of mineral as part of the development of the fuel and energy complex. At the same time, shale gas is not yet considered economically feasible for development due to the complexity of its production.

The situation is approximately the same as with oil and gas in our country and with coal - its resources in the country are very significant. At this stage of development of the Russian fuel and energy complex, they require further geological study.

Regarding the extraction of raw materials for nuclear energy - according to the World Nuclear Association for 2007, Russia's reserves amount to 550 thousand tons, of which only half are known. At the current level of consumption of this raw material (taking into account the export of uranium), a shortage of this type of fuel may arise in the next 40 years. A way out of this situation could be the expansion of geo-prospecting work to identify profitable uranium deposits or the introduction of new fast neutron reactors. This type of reactor consumes significantly less raw materials, while more resources are available for it. Another alternative to this solution could be the development of reactors based on the thorium cycle.

Speaking about energy, it is also worth mentioning such a promising area as the production of electricity from renewable resources. According to some studies, the economic potential of all renewable energy sources is several times higher than the country's annual energy demand throughout the 21st century. Of course, due to the high material intensity of energy extraction technologies from this type of resource (and the resulting lower energy output), such energy sources are considered possible in the longer term.

In general, one of the central tasks of the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex should be solving the problem of energy saving, primarily based on the replacement of outdated equipment and technologies. The energy-saving development path requires several times less investment than in expanding energy production capacities, so it is advisable to rely on innovative developments in this area, as well as on legislative support for such a policy.

As for energy exports, analysts predict a high level of growth in the long term. It is expected that after 2030, oil exports will begin to decline due to the depletion of cheaply produced resources (against the backdrop of increasing demand, including through exports to Asian countries). In this regard, the possibility of producing artificial oil based on cheap coal is being considered.

Regarding gas, there are a number of factors that threaten the prospects for the development of gas exports to the main consumers of this product in Russia - the EU countries. These factors lie in a wide range from the unstable geopolitical situation in Ukraine to the predicted emergence of competitive offers from other countries in the long term. In this regard, it is necessary to prepare the technical basis for the ability to offer competitive prices by reducing the cost of production of this resource, as well as the development of a more flexible pricing policy in relation to European consumers.

Bibliography

1. Ivanter V.V., Ksenofontov M.Yu. The concept of a constructive forecast for the growth of the Russian economy in the long term // Problems of forecasting. 2012. No. 6.
2. A.V. Novak, Results of the work of the Russian fuel and energy complex in 2013. Ministry of Energy, minenergo.gov.ru
3. Yu.V. Sinyak, A.S. Nekrasov, S.A. Voronina, V.V. Semikashev, A.Yu. Kolpakov Fuel and energy complex of Russia: opportunities and prospects, http://www.ecfor.ru/pdf.php?id=2013/1/02

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In recent years, for various reasons, the problems of the Russian fuel and energy complex have sharply worsened.

Among the main problems of the fuel and energy complex, it is necessary to highlight the following: - increasing complexity of production and increasing transportation distances of energy resources due to the depletion of exploited fields and the need to develop new, more remote and located in hard-to-reach areas;

High (about 80%) wear and tear of energy equipment, which predetermines the shutdown of almost half of power plants with a total capacity of about 100 GW out of the existing 215 GW by 2015 due to the exhaustion of their resource;

Decrease in the pace and level of promising developments due to insufficient funding;

The deepening generation gap in the field of research and development activities, associated with the decline in its prestige and meager funding;

The growing loss of foreign markets, largely due to the lack of investment (often Russian projects with higher technical and economic characteristics lose tenders only due to the lack of required financing), etc.

Factors constraining energy development also include:

The continuing shortage of investment resources and their irrational use. With the high investment potential of the fuel and energy sector, the influx of foreign investment into them is less than 13% of the total financing of capital investments. Moreover, 95% of these investments are in the oil industry. In the electric power industry, conditions have not been created for the necessary investment reserve, as a result of which these industries can become a brake on the economic growth that has begun;

Power equipment used in the energy sector is uneconomical. The country has virtually no advanced steam-gas plants, waste gas purification plants, very little use of renewable energy sources, coal industry equipment is outdated and technically backward, and the potential of nuclear energy is underutilized;

The lack of market infrastructure and a civilized, competitive energy market is due to the fact that the construction of thermal power plants was tied to specific industrial facilities, and there are no external transmission lines for part of the electrical transmission;

The necessary transparency of the economic activities of natural monopolies is not ensured, which negatively affects the quality of state regulation of their activities and the development of competition;

Continued high load on the environment from fuel and energy activities. Thermal power plants are the main air pollutants in the structure of the fuel and energy complex, especially those that run on coal. Today, when the Kyoto Protocol has been signed and ratified by the Russian Federation, this problem of energy companies is becoming one of the most pressing;

Lack of developed and stable legislation that fully takes into account the specifics of the functioning of fuel and energy enterprises.

Considering the decisive role of the fuel and energy complex in the economy of our country, the restoration of the fuel and energy complex, including its position in the world market, is becoming a priority state task.

The severity of the problems in the development of the fuel and energy complex will largely be determined by the relationship between the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of economic growth. The exhaustion of many extensive factors that have operated for decades necessitates a transition to a qualitative new type of economic growth. Its main distinguishing features are:

Global technological revolution,

Transition from a resource-absorbing model of economic development to a knowledge-intensive one,

Increasing the productivity of the use of all factors of social production,

Increasing the well-being of the population not so much through an increase in the quantity of material and spiritual goods, but through an increase in their quality,

Incorporating a healthy environment into well-being.

For many countries, the fuel and energy complex is a kind of economic engine, helping not only to stay afloat, but also to achieve certain progress. However, if you do not invest in the fuel and energy complex, then the efficiency of its activities will gradually decrease. This is especially true for the oil sector, which without investment can quickly “die”, and its resurrection is a long and extremely expensive process.

Due to the instability of the legal framework for economic activity in Russia and for a number of other reasons, the investment attractiveness of the fuel and energy complex for domestic and foreign investors has decreased, although the need for them has increased many times over. In the context of a significant increase in the cost of extraction and production of fuel and energy resources, the need for a sharp increase in capital investments in the fuel and energy complex and stricter environmental requirements, the strategic importance of increasing the energy efficiency of the economy has increased as the most important tool for meeting the energy needs of society.

It is necessary to develop and implement government measures to stimulate investment activity in the oil industry, including oil refining, including expanding the system of production sharing agreements, especially in the field of risky business.